Dota 2: Froglings vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (67%) · Froglings at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

Froglings82¢PlayTime18¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$147.84

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 81.5¢

+38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings82%

PlayTime19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,668

Combined PnL+$165.41

PlayTime3 traders

Total Value$233.42

Total Shares589

Combined PnL-$17.57

Froglings — 67%PlayTime — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Froglings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFroglings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpFroglings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFroglings 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Froglings 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Froglingsavg 67¢	$875.09	$798.39	-$76.7	53% 14840-13046 (27886)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 67¢	$513.64	$628.63	+$114.99
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 38.3¢	$361.45	$169.76	-$191.69
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Froglingsavg 63.2¢	$305.67	$391.49	+$85.82	59% 1040-730 (1770)
OM omnibus-076daa	Froglingsavg 74.7¢	$246.95	$263.44	+$16.49	50% 24138-24257 (48395)
VI vibing123	Froglingsavg 50.9¢	$176.7	$201.26	+$24.56	51% 1784-1683 (3467)
38 38791873984189	Froglingsavg 58.6¢	$203.15	$178.8	+$8.93	48% 72230-77977 (150207)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 36.9¢	$227.52	$173.44	-$54.08	47% 2286-2587 (4873)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 58.8¢	$67.21	$93.16	+$25.95
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 36.9¢	$160.31	$80.28	-$80.03
DA darkumbreon88CTR	PlayTimeavg 50¢	$137.84	$132.47	-$5.37	65% 2216-1213 (3429)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Froglingsavg 44.2¢	$99.3	$130.23	+$23.58	53% 6776-6000 (12776)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	PlayTimeavg 49.6¢	$97.19	$82.35	-$9.45	47% 255-290 (545)
VV VVVSSP<$100	Froglingsavg 53.2¢	$67.69	$73.73	+$6.04	46% 41-49 (90)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	PlayTimeavg 37.4¢	$21.35	$18.6	-$2.75	52% 6204-5726 (11930)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Froglings

Invested

$875.09

Value

$798.39

PnL

-$76.7

Record

53%

14840-13046 (27886)

Both legs:

Froglings$513.6467¢+$114.99

PlayTime$361.4538.3¢-$191.69

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Froglings

Invested

$305.67

Value

$391.49

PnL

+$85.82

Record

59%

1040-730 (1770)

omnibus-076daa

Froglings

Invested

$246.95

Value

$263.44

PnL

+$16.49

Record

50%

24138-24257 (48395)

vibing123

Froglings

Invested

$176.7

Value

$201.26

PnL

+$24.56

Record

51%

1784-1683 (3467)

38791873984189

Froglings

Invested

$203.15

Value

$178.8

PnL

+$8.93

Record

48%

72230-77977 (150207)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$227.52

Value

$173.44

PnL

-$54.08

Record

47%

2286-2587 (4873)

Both legs:

Froglings$67.2158.8¢+$25.95

PlayTime$160.3136.9¢-$80.03

darkumbreon88CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$137.84

Value

$132.47

PnL

-$5.37

Record

65%

2216-1213 (3429)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Froglings

Invested

$99.3

Value

$130.23

PnL

+$23.58

Record

53%

6776-6000 (12776)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$97.19

Value

$82.35

PnL

-$9.45

Record

47%

255-290 (545)

VVVSSP<$100

Froglings

Invested

$67.69

Value

$73.73

PnL

+$6.04

Record

46%

41-49 (90)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$21.35

Value

$18.6

PnL

-$2.75

Record

52%

6204-5726 (11930)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Froglings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFroglings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpFroglings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFroglings 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Froglings 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.