Dota 2: Froglings vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (60%) · Froglings at 67¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 12

Froglings67¢Nemiga Gaming33¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.5K

Combined PnL

$-6.7K

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 66.5¢

-18% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings67%

Nemiga Gaming34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings9 traders

Total Value$24.5K

Total Shares36,898

Combined PnL$-6.1K

Nemiga Gaming6 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares25,245

Combined PnL-$591.13

Froglings — 60%Nemiga Gaming — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Froglings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNemiga Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFroglings 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Froglings 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	Froglingsavg 83.4¢	$23.3K	$18.3K	$-5.0K	57% 523-401 (924)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 30.1¢	$4.0K	$4.5K	+$570.68	47% 443-506 (949)
Tolkonevminus2	Froglingsavg 76.9¢	$4.2K	$3.6K	-$621.43	40% 41-61 (102)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 50.4¢	$3.7K	$2.5K	$-1.2K	48% 505-549 (1054)
QW qwerqr1251251ARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 37.2¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$205.14	20% 37-150 (187)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 37.2¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$115.38
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 71.3¢	$1.0K	$953.34	-$89.77
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Froglingsavg 73.5¢	$7.1K	$1.7K	-$516.51	29% 32-80 (112)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 29¢	$675.11	$756.59	+$81.48	21% 15-57 (72)
MA madar78	Froglingsavg 59¢	$509.07	$582.41	+$73.34	38% 26-43 (69)
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 25.8¢	$320.59	$328.67	+$8.09	47% 17-19 (36)
XJ xjansfsaCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 41¢	$344.4	$243.6	-$100.8	39% 18-28 (46)
PO PourpelNourpel	Froglingsavg 84¢	$306.67	$239.18	-$67.49	52% 41-38 (79)
PA pauleta23CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 28¢	$125.9	$130.4	+$4.5	31% 221-482 (703)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Froglingsavg 64.1¢	$72.71	$96.29	+$23.57	53% 1833-1635 (3468)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 17.9¢	$30.52	$49.54	+$19.02
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 64.1¢	$42.2	$46.75	+$4.55
LR lryyy<$100	Froglingsavg 62.7¢	$64.58	$64.94	+$0.36	45% 240-290 (530)
DO DotaBotReborn<$100	Froglingsavg 75¢	$60.93	$57.68	-$3.25	63% 31-18 (49)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Froglingsavg 83¢	$5.09	$4.02	-$1.07	22% 119-414 (533)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Froglingsavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.55	+$0.1	33% 307-627 (934)

Sisyphus-

Froglings

Invested

$23,273.97

Value

$18.3K

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

57%

523-401 (924)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3,954.06

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$570.68

Record

47%

443-506 (949)

Tolkonevminus2

Froglings

Invested

$4,190.75

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$621.43

Record

40%

41-61 (102)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3,663.83

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

48%

505-549 (1054)

qwerqr1251251ARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$2,708.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$205.14

Record

20%

37-150 (187)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$1,60037.2¢-$115.38

Froglings$1,037.2471.3¢-$89.77

UNIVERSEMVP

Froglings

Invested

$7,083.68

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$516.51

Record

29%

32-80 (112)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$675.11

Value

$756.59

PnL

+$81.48

Record

21%

15-57 (72)

madar78

Froglings

Invested

$509.07

Value

$582.41

PnL

+$73.34

Record

38%

26-43 (69)

GooGooGaga1CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$320.59

Value

$328.67

PnL

+$8.09

Record

47%

17-19 (36)

xjansfsaCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$344.4

Value

$243.6

PnL

-$100.8

Record

39%

18-28 (46)

PourpelNourpel

Froglings

Invested

$306.67

Value

$239.18

PnL

-$67.49

Record

52%

41-38 (79)

pauleta23CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$125.9

Value

$130.4

PnL

+$4.5

Record

31%

221-482 (703)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Froglings

Invested

$72.71

Value

$96.29

PnL

+$23.57

Record

53%

1833-1635 (3468)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$30.5217.9¢+$19.02

Froglings$42.264.1¢+$4.55

lryyy<$100

Froglings

Invested

$64.58

Value

$64.94

PnL

+$0.36

Record

45%

240-290 (530)

DotaBotReborn<$100

Froglings

Invested

$60.93

Value

$57.68

PnL

-$3.25

Record

63%

31-18 (49)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Froglings

Invested

$5.09

Value

$4.02

PnL

-$1.07

Record

22%

119-414 (533)

ameisgoat11<$100

Froglings

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.1

Record

33%

307-627 (934)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Froglings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNemiga Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFroglings 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Froglings 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.