Dota 2: Froglings vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (67%) · Froglings at 100¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 12

Froglings>99¢Nemiga Gaming<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 67%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$-6.7K

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings100%

Nemiga Gaming0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings6 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares12,708

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Nemiga Gaming3 traders

Total Value$7.39

Total Shares10,920

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Froglings — 67%Nemiga Gaming — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Froglings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFroglings 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFroglings 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Froglings 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
handandfacetatto	Froglingsavg 99.9¢	$10.2K	$10.2K	+$6.32	100% 71-0 (71)
MA madar78	Froglingsavg 98.1¢	$6.7K	$2.1K	$-2.9K	38% 26-43 (69)
PA pauleta23	Froglingsavg 85.7¢	$200	$219.39	+$19.39	31% 220-481 (701)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Froglingsavg 64.9¢	$64.2	$75.03	+$10.83	53% 1830-1635 (3465)
LR lryyy<$100	Froglingsavg 65.3¢	$50.27	$73.92	+$23.65	45% 239-290 (529)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 35.4¢	$3.8K	$5.37	$-3.8K	47% 443-506 (949)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Froglingsavg 69¢	$6.2	$5.35	-$0.85	33% 307-625 (932)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 30.9¢	$9.99	$1.94	-$8.05	41% 3150-4506 (7656)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 18.9¢	$28.04	$0.07	-$27.96	48% 505-549 (1054)

handandfacetatto

Froglings

Invested

$10,216.24

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$6.32

Record

100%

71-0 (71)

madar78

Froglings

Invested

$6,743.53

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

38%

26-43 (69)

pauleta23

Froglings

Invested

$200

Value

$219.39

PnL

+$19.39

Record

31%

220-481 (701)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Froglings

Invested

$64.2

Value

$75.03

PnL

+$10.83

Record

53%

1830-1635 (3465)

lryyy<$100

Froglings

Invested

$50.27

Value

$73.92

PnL

+$23.65

Record

45%

239-290 (529)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3,800

Value

$5.37

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

47%

443-506 (949)

ameisgoat11<$100

Froglings

Invested

$6.2

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.85

Record

33%

307-625 (932)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$9.99

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$8.05

Record

41%

3150-4506 (7656)

RandomVibecoderCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$28.04

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$27.96

Record

48%

505-549 (1054)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Froglings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFroglings 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFroglings 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Froglings 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.