Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold LEGION, while the market favors Froglings (55%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Froglings vs LEGION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold LEGION (82%) · LEGION at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Froglings55¢LEGION45¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LEGION

Consensus Traders

LEGION 82%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$2.88

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 45.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Froglings 55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings55%

LEGION46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,210

Combined PnL-$3.06

Froglings2 traders

Total Value$7.78

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.18

LEGION — 82%Froglings — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on LEGION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLEGION 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LEGION 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarmCTR	LEGIONavg 47¢	$752	$752	+$0	54% 59-50 (109)
RN RN01CTR	LEGIONavg 47¢	$313.02	$313.02	+$0	— 3-3 (6)
TH thatsabing0CTR	LEGIONavg 47¢	$158.07	$153.03	-$5.04	62% 265-160 (425)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	LEGIONavg 47¢	$109.01	$109.11	+$0.1	46% 621-730 (1351)
VI vibing123CTR	LEGIONavg 46¢	$105.01	$106.15	+$1.14	61% 1200-763 (1963)
JO johnsonboyyCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 41.6¢	$54.1	$54.6	+$0.5	48% 15-16 (31)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Froglingsavg 53¢	$4.85	$5	+$0.15	43% 851-1135 (1986)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 40.6¢	$4.19	$4.33	+$0.14	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
YI yishiwucheng<$100	Froglingsavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.78	+$0.03	58% 106-78 (184)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	LEGIONavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.1	+$0.05	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	LEGIONavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.84	+$0.05	53% 1883-1643 (3526)

JuiceFarmCTR

LEGION

Invested

$752

Value

$752

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

59-50 (109)

RN01CTR

LEGION

Invested

$313.02

Value

$313.02

PnL

+$0

Record

—

3-3 (6)

thatsabing0CTR

LEGION

Invested

$158.07

Value

$153.03

PnL

-$5.04

Record

62%

265-160 (425)

omnibus-076daaCTR

LEGION

Invested

$109.01

Value

$109.11

PnL

+$0.1

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

vibing123CTR

LEGION

Invested

$105.01

Value

$106.15

PnL

+$1.14

Record

61%

1200-763 (1963)

johnsonboyyCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$54.1

Value

$54.6

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

15-16 (31)

ameisgoat11<$100

Froglings

Invested

$4.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$4.19

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

yishiwucheng<$100

Froglings

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

106-78 (184)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Froglings 55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on LEGION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLEGION 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LEGION 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LEGION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.