Dota 2: Froglings vs Ka4kanarskie cyxariki - Game 2 Winner

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (54%) · Froglings at 93¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 9

Froglings93¢Ka4kanarskie cyxariki7¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.4K

Combined PnL

$3.9K

Smart Money Entry

73.3¢ → 93¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings93%

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings7 traders

Total Value$26.5K

Total Shares28,882

Combined PnL+$5.4K

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares14,557

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Froglings — 54%Ka4kanarskie cyxariki — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	Froglingsavg 76¢	$9.7K	$11.5K	+$1.8K	55% 840-696 (1536)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Froglingsavg 66.9¢	$4.7K	$6.7K	+$2.0K	58% 1007-718 (1725)
GX gxxyy	Froglingsavg 74.3¢	$4.6K	$5.8K	+$1.2K	70% 528-231 (759)
GE GeorgeReCTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 34.6¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$682.16	54% 1193-1029 (2222)
maytopmay	Froglingsavg 77.1¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$219.09	60% 327-219 (546)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 24.6¢	$2.0K	$1.0K	-$943.73	50% 567-577 (1144)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 66.3¢	$542.23	$781.17	+$238.94
└ Ka4kanarskie cyxariki leg	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 24.6¢	$1.4K	$264.58	$-1.2K
PO PourpelNourpel	Froglingsavg 72.9¢	$507.39	$664.33	+$156.94	52% 688-645 (1333)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 25.5¢	$1.1K	$262.95	-$854.1	46% 673-784 (1457)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 26.4¢	$1.2K	$203.51	-$989.39	48% 876-944 (1820)
R2 r2d2v2	Froglingsavg 69¢	$250.12	$181.15	-$68.97	54% 314-264 (578)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Froglingsavg 75¢	$123	$82.04	-$40.96	59% 7335-5080 (12415)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 28.2¢	$315	$50.24	-$264.76	57% 20229-15050 (35279)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 25¢	$147.27	$49.59	-$97.68	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 68¢	$18.89	$26.53	+$7.64
└ Ka4kanarskie cyxariki leg	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 25¢	$128.38	$23.06	-$105.31
eblomixerCTR<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 28¢	$16.79	$16.5	-$0.29	58% 556-399 (955)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 32¢	$20	$14.75	-$5.25	65% 25411-13605 (39016)

Sisyphus-

Froglings

Invested

$9,701.12

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

55%

840-696 (1536)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Froglings

Invested

$4,714.77

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

58%

1007-718 (1725)

gxxyy

Froglings

Invested

$4,618.76

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

70%

528-231 (759)

GeorgeReCTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$1,539.83

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$682.16

Record

54%

1193-1029 (2222)

maytopmay

Froglings

Invested

$1,261.31

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$219.09

Record

60%

327-219 (546)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$1,989.49

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$943.73

Record

50%

567-577 (1144)

Both legs:

Froglings$542.2366.3¢+$238.94

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki$1,447.2624.6¢$-1.2K

PourpelNourpel

Froglings

Invested

$507.39

Value

$664.33

PnL

+$156.94

Record

52%

688-645 (1333)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$1,117.06

Value

$262.95

PnL

-$854.1

Record

46%

673-784 (1457)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$1,192.89

Value

$203.51

PnL

-$989.39

Record

48%

876-944 (1820)

r2d2v2

Froglings

Invested

$250.12

Value

$181.15

PnL

-$68.97

Record

54%

314-264 (578)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Froglings

Invested

$123

Value

$82.04

PnL

-$40.96

Record

59%

7335-5080 (12415)

BillBenter2026CTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$315

Value

$50.24

PnL

-$264.76

Record

57%

20229-15050 (35279)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$147.27

Value

$49.59

PnL

-$97.68

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Both legs:

Froglings$18.8968¢+$7.64

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki$128.3825¢-$105.31

eblomixerCTR<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$16.79

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$0.29

Record

58%

556-399 (955)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$20

Value

$14.75

PnL

-$5.25

Record

65%

25411-13605 (39016)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.