Dota 2: Froglings vs Ka4kanarskie cyxariki - Game 1 Winner

7 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (33%) · Froglings at 95¢ · $74K held · ends Nov 9

Froglings95¢Ka4kanarskie cyxariki5¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$74.1K

Combined PnL

$5.5K

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 95¢

+74% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

7 of 21 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings95%

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings7 traders

Total Value$59.8K

Total Shares70,548

Combined PnL+$17.3K

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki14 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares42,994

Combined PnL$-11.8K

Froglings — 33%Ka4kanarskie cyxariki — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Froglingsavg 60.4¢	$13.8K	$15.4K	+$1.6K	58% 1007-718 (1725)
Medo3D	Froglingsavg 53.7¢	$7.0K	$11.9K	+$4.9K	40% 182-275 (457)
YA yadens	Froglingsavg 55.5¢	$7.1K	$11.5K	+$4.4K	71% 191-79 (270)
Skritopoolniy	Froglingsavg 51.3¢	$6.5K	$8.9K	+$2.4K	46% 673-784 (1457)
RA RandomVibecoder	Froglingsavg 52.6¢	$4.3K	$7.7K	+$3.4K	48% 876-944 (1820)
QW qwerqr1251251CTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 51.6¢	$6.5K	$5.0K	$-1.4K	70% 328-139 (467)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	Froglingsavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0.47	43% 77-102 (179)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 38.5¢	$3.8K	$2.1K	-$717.23	68% 128-61 (189)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 49.6¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$25.76	68% 638-307 (945)
GX gxxyyARB<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 47.3¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$241.62	70% 528-231 (759)
└ Ka4kanarskie cyxariki leg	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 47.3¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$391.19
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 43¢	$329.81	$479.38	+$149.57
errormargin	Froglingsavg 46.2¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$537.46	53% 249-217 (466)
maytopmayCTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 49.9¢	$807.14	$789.41	-$1.88	60% 327-219 (546)
CR Crazyboy77ARB<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 28¢	$493.82	$735.97	+$242.14	54% 221-191 (412)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 33¢	$213.83	$485.97	+$272.14
└ Ka4kanarskie cyxariki leg	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 28¢	$280	$250	-$30
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 47¢	$5.2K	$517.62	$-4.3K	55% 840-696 (1536)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 46¢	$2.8K	$310.89	$-1.1K	61% 75-47 (122)
MA madar78CTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 45.9¢	$7.4K	$243.81	$-2.3K	67% 82-40 (122)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 37.6¢	$766.98	$203.97	-$563.01	52% 688-645 (1333)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 42.8¢	$236.08	$121.08	-$115	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 57.1¢	$46.34	$72.29	+$25.95
└ Ka4kanarskie cyxariki leg	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 42.8¢	$189.74	$48.79	-$140.95
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 44.2¢	$498.76	$112.85	-$385.92	57% 20229-15050 (35279)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 49.9¢	$604.81	$60.61	-$544.2	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 40.5¢	$230.37	$28.47	-$201.9	54% 3880-3246 (7126)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 50¢	$127.5	$22.95	-$104.55	56% 39453-31101 (70554)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 16¢	$37.44	$22.23	-$15.21	47% 1624-1831 (3455)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 47.5¢	$30	$6.32	-$23.68	65% 25411-13605 (39016)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Froglings

Invested

$13,806.14

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

58%

1007-718 (1725)

Medo3D

Froglings

Invested

$7,000.75

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

40%

182-275 (457)

yadens

Froglings

Invested

$7,099.99

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

71%

191-79 (270)

Skritopoolniy

Froglings

Invested

$6,465.97

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

46%

673-784 (1457)

RandomVibecoder

Froglings

Invested

$4,257.06

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

48%

876-944 (1820)

qwerqr1251251CTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$6,456.34

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

70%

328-139 (467)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

Froglings

Invested

$2,511.39

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0.47

Record

43%

77-102 (179)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$3,813.88

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$717.23

Record

68%

128-61 (189)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$2,034.25

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$25.76

Record

68%

638-307 (945)

gxxyyARB<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$2,221

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$241.62

Record

70%

528-231 (759)

Both legs:

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki$1,891.1947.3¢-$391.19

Froglings$329.8143¢+$149.57

errormargin

Froglings

Invested

$1,830.97

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$537.46

Record

53%

249-217 (466)

maytopmayCTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$807.14

Value

$789.41

PnL

-$1.88

Record

60%

327-219 (546)

Crazyboy77ARB<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$493.82

Value

$735.97

PnL

+$242.14

Record

54%

221-191 (412)

Both legs:

Froglings$213.8333¢+$272.14

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki$28028¢-$30

Sisyphus-CTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$5,230.46

Value

$517.62

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

55%

840-696 (1536)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$2,827.5

Value

$310.89

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

61%

75-47 (122)

madar78CTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$7,449.23

Value

$243.81

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

67%

82-40 (122)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$766.98

Value

$203.97

PnL

-$563.01

Record

52%

688-645 (1333)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$236.08

Value

$121.08

PnL

-$115

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Both legs:

Froglings$46.3457.1¢+$25.95

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki$189.7442.8¢-$140.95

BillBenter2026CTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$498.76

Value

$112.85

PnL

-$385.92

Record

57%

20229-15050 (35279)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$604.81

Value

$60.61

PnL

-$544.2

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$230.37

Value

$28.47

PnL

-$201.9

Record

54%

3880-3246 (7126)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$127.5

Value

$22.95

PnL

-$104.55

Record

56%

39453-31101 (70554)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$37.44

Value

$22.23

PnL

-$15.21

Record

47%

1624-1831 (3455)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$30

Value

$6.32

PnL

-$23.68

Record

65%

25411-13605 (39016)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

7 of 21 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.