Dota 2: Froglings vs CyberHero - Game 1 Winner

11 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (52%) · CyberHero at 100¢ · $75K held · ends Nov 11

Froglings<1¢CyberHero>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 52%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$75.2K

Combined PnL

$-17.6K

Smart Money Entry

42.9¢ → 100¢

+133% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

11 of 21 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings0%

CyberHero100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero11 traders

Total Value$45.4K

Total Shares80,850

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Froglings10 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares55,615

Combined PnL$-20.9K

CyberHero — 52%Froglings — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Medo3D	CyberHeroavg 38¢	$10.0K	$17.7K	+$7.8K	6% 14-216 (230)
GX gxxyyARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 53.6¢	$13.9K	$15.0K	+$1.1K	69% 484-220 (704)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 53.6¢	$8.3K	$10.6K	+$2.3K
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 40.6¢	$5.6K	$4.3K	$-1.3K
Hawk.live	CyberHeroavg 56.5¢	$10.5K	$10.9K	+$448.65	56% 661-512 (1173)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	Froglingsavg 61.4¢	$7.2K	$7.5K	+$304.1	34% 29-57 (86)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	CyberHeroavg 37¢	$8.2K	$6.1K	$-2.1K	46% 426-495 (921)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	CyberHeroavg 72.9¢	$5.6K	$3.7K	$-1.7K	25% 26-76 (102)
QW qwerqr1251251CTR	Froglingsavg 62.8¢	$5.6K	$2.9K	$-2.7K	15% 25-143 (168)
RA RandomVibecoder	CyberHeroavg 38.8¢	$4.6K	$2.9K	$-1.8K	48% 491-535 (1026)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	CyberHeroavg 37.9¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$198.87	8% 17-185 (202)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Froglingsavg 60¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$47.04	51% 3711-3543 (7254)
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	Froglingsavg 61.1¢	$2.3K	$1.3K	$-1.0K	43% 13-17 (30)
XU xuxuntao	CyberHeroavg 77¢	$1,000	$1.3K	+$291.7	37% 28-47 (75)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	Froglingsavg 44.2¢	$4.3K	$1.0K	+$514.65	15% 10-55 (65)
NO nomoredream	CyberHeroavg 67.2¢	$473.07	$700.7	+$227.63	24% 23-71 (94)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Froglingsavg 63¢	$406.06	$420.24	+$14.18	53% 1793-1600 (3393)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 63¢	$232.83	$238.35	+$5.51
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 33.8¢	$173.22	$181.89	+$8.67
handandfacetatto	CyberHeroavg 99¢	$123.48	$124.11	+$0.62	100% 58-0 (58)
GE GeorgeReCTR	Froglingsavg 54.7¢	$10.6K	$96.98	$-10.5K	53% 698-629 (1327)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Froglingsavg 60¢	$60	$62	+$2	62% 1321-795 (2116)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Froglingsavg 72.6¢	$40	$38.17	-$1.83	28% 183-466 (649)
YA yadensCTR	Froglingsavg 73.8¢	$5.6K	$38.17	$-5.6K	20% 18-74 (92)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR	Froglingsavg 49.5¢	$2.9K	$17.68	$-2.0K	9% 6-63 (69)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	CyberHeroavg 51¢	$5.1	$4.6	-$0.5	32% 282-611 (893)
VeryLucky888<$100	CyberHeroavg 53¢	$13.25	$0.54	-$0.32	52% 445-417 (862)

Medo3D

CyberHero

Invested

$9,977.84

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$7.8K

Record

14-216 (230)

gxxyyARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$13,920.14

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

69%

484-220 (704)

Both legs:

CyberHero$8,326.4853.6¢+$2.3K

Froglings$5,593.6640.6¢$-1.3K

Hawk.live

CyberHero

Invested

$10,463.37

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$448.65

Record

56%

661-512 (1173)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

Froglings

Invested

$7,220.3

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$304.1

Record

34%

29-57 (86)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

CyberHero

Invested

$8,153.4

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

UNIVERSEMVP

CyberHero

Invested

$5,618.49

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

25%

26-76 (102)

qwerqr1251251CTR

Froglings

Invested

$5,638.36

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

15%

25-143 (168)

RandomVibecoder

CyberHero

Invested

$4,641.2

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

48%

491-535 (1026)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

CyberHero

Invested

$1,760.75

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$198.87

Record

17-185 (202)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Froglings

Invested

$1,411.25

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$47.04

Record

51%

3711-3543 (7254)

GooGooGaga1CTR

Froglings

Invested

$2,299.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

43%

13-17 (30)

xuxuntao

CyberHero

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$291.7

Record

37%

28-47 (75)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

Froglings

Invested

$4,301.07

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$514.65

Record

15%

10-55 (65)

nomoredream

CyberHero

Invested

$473.07

Value

$700.7

PnL

+$227.63

Record

24%

23-71 (94)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Froglings

Invested

$406.06

Value

$420.24

PnL

+$14.18

Record

53%

1793-1600 (3393)

Both legs:

Froglings$232.8363¢+$5.51

CyberHero$173.2233.8¢+$8.67

handandfacetatto

CyberHero

Invested

$123.48

Value

$124.11

PnL

+$0.62

Record

100%

58-0 (58)

GeorgeReCTR

Froglings

Invested

$10,611.98

Value

$96.98

PnL

$-10.5K

Record

53%

698-629 (1327)

shiifooCTR<$100

Froglings

Invested

$60

Value

$62

PnL

+$2

Record

62%

1321-795 (2116)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Froglings

Invested

$40

Value

$38.17

PnL

-$1.83

Record

28%

183-466 (649)

yadensCTR

Froglings

Invested

$5,637.38

Value

$38.17

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

20%

18-74 (92)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR

Froglings

Invested

$2,947.76

Value

$17.68

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

6-63 (69)

ameisgoat11<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$5.1

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$0.5

Record

32%

282-611 (893)

VeryLucky888<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$13.25

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.32

Record

52%

445-417 (862)

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

11 of 21 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.