Dota 2: CyberHero vs Xipto Esports - Game 1 Winner

16 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (67%) · CyberHero at 93¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 13

CyberHero93¢Xipto Esports7¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.2K

Combined PnL

-$18.89

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 93¢

+53% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

16 of 24 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CyberHero93%

Xipto Esports7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero16 traders

Total Value$22.1K

Total Shares25,925

Combined PnL+$5.3K

Xipto Esports8 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares27,256

Combined PnL$-5.3K

CyberHero — 67%Xipto Esports — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE GeorgeRe	CyberHeroavg 54.7¢	$3.2K	$5.5K	+$2.2K	53% 711-643 (1354)
Sunshine.Smile	CyberHeroavg 61.2¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$231.9	— 5-2 (7)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 46.9¢	$6.7K	$3.2K	$-3.1K	48% 528-572 (1100)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 55.4¢	$1.5K	$2.5K	+$898.25
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 46.9¢	$4.8K	$768.56	$-4.0K
SI Sisyphus-	CyberHeroavg 60¢	$2.0K	$3.1K	+$1.1K	57% 538-406 (944)
BI BillBenter2026	CyberHeroavg 52.4¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$353.31	28% 212-558 (770)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 38.1¢	$911.51	$1.3K	+$415.03	15% 35-204 (239)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 60.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$1.52	56% 3980-3112 (7092)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 60.5¢	$754.42	$928.53	+$174.11
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 39¢	$498.77	$326.17	-$172.59
GE GEAEW	CyberHeroavg 78¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15.78	— 12-6 (18)
R2 r2d2v2	CyberHeroavg 63¢	$749.99	$1.1K	+$351.18	12% 26-184 (210)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 40.7¢	$5.8K	$1.1K	$-4.7K	47% 462-528 (990)
CA calculate10	CyberHeroavg 74.9¢	$891.15	$984.67	+$210.12	34% 65-125 (190)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	CyberHeroavg 71¢	$1.1K	$914.72	+$355.3	— 11-4 (15)
Medo3DCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 54¢	$861.88	$877.84	+$15.96	11% 31-250 (281)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 20¢	$1.6K	$585.28	-$975.33	9% 39-379 (418)
DO DotaBotReborn	CyberHeroavg 58.6¢	$320.28	$516.47	+$196.19	65% 45-24 (69)
NO NotJump	CyberHeroavg 63.8¢	$1.6K	$498.86	-$95.79	53% 634-568 (1202)
CC ccllar	CyberHeroavg 44.7¢	$185.65	$383.88	+$198.23	43% 44-58 (102)
YI yishiwucheng	CyberHeroavg 71.4¢	$392.49	$371.11	-$21.38	57% 73-54 (127)
maytopmay	CyberHeroavg 66.2¢	$234.95	$335.25	+$100.29	19% 49-205 (254)
PO PourpelNourpel	CyberHeroavg 61¢	$307.09	$319.67	+$12.59	56% 65-52 (117)
VV VVVSSPCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 39¢	$298.74	$287.25	-$11.49	31% 30-66 (96)
Hawk.live	CyberHeroavg 76¢	$253.07	$248.07	-$4.99	57% 682-517 (1199)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 57.7¢	$142.47	$154.77	+$12.3	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 57.7¢	$86.17	$117.92	+$31.75
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 32.1¢	$56.3	$36.84	-$19.46
poshposhARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 38.3¢	$115.92	$91.13	-$24.79	47% 786-902 (1688)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 77.9¢	$57.49	$57.53	+$0.04
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 38.3¢	$58.43	$33.6	-$24.83
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 75.9¢	$245.76	$89.53	+$9.35	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 75.9¢	$72.04	$69.29	-$4.97
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 23.7¢	$17.73	$20.24	+$14.32

GeorgeRe

CyberHero

Invested

$3,221.49

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

53%

711-643 (1354)

Sunshine.Smile

CyberHero

Invested

$3,709.19

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$231.9

Record

—

5-2 (7)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$6,749.03

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

48%

528-572 (1100)

Both legs:

CyberHero$1,484.0955.4¢+$898.25

Xipto Esports$4,806.4546.9¢$-4.0K

Sisyphus-

CyberHero

Invested

$1,960.32

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

57%

538-406 (944)

BillBenter2026

CyberHero

Invested

$2,371.14

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$353.31

Record

28%

212-558 (770)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$911.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$415.03

Record

15%

35-204 (239)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$1,253.18

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.52

Record

56%

3980-3112 (7092)

Both legs:

CyberHero$754.4260.5¢+$174.11

Xipto Esports$498.7739¢-$172.59

GEAEW

CyberHero

Invested

$1,231.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15.78

Record

—

12-6 (18)

r2d2v2

CyberHero

Invested

$749.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$351.18

Record

12%

26-184 (210)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$5,800

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

47%

462-528 (990)

calculate10

CyberHero

Invested

$891.15

Value

$984.67

PnL

+$210.12

Record

34%

65-125 (190)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

CyberHero

Invested

$1,125.62

Value

$914.72

PnL

+$355.3

Record

—

11-4 (15)

Medo3DCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$861.88

Value

$877.84

PnL

+$15.96

Record

11%

31-250 (281)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,560.62

Value

$585.28

PnL

-$975.33

Record

39-379 (418)

DotaBotReborn

CyberHero

Invested

$320.28

Value

$516.47

PnL

+$196.19

Record

65%

45-24 (69)

NotJump

CyberHero

Invested

$1,636.99

Value

$498.86

PnL

-$95.79

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

ccllar

CyberHero

Invested

$185.65

Value

$383.88

PnL

+$198.23

Record

43%

44-58 (102)

yishiwucheng

CyberHero

Invested

$392.49

Value

$371.11

PnL

-$21.38

Record

57%

73-54 (127)

maytopmay

CyberHero

Invested

$234.95

Value

$335.25

PnL

+$100.29

Record

19%

49-205 (254)

PourpelNourpel

CyberHero

Invested

$307.09

Value

$319.67

PnL

+$12.59

Record

56%

65-52 (117)

VVVSSPCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$298.74

Value

$287.25

PnL

-$11.49

Record

31%

30-66 (96)

Hawk.live

CyberHero

Invested

$253.07

Value

$248.07

PnL

-$4.99

Record

57%

682-517 (1199)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$142.47

Value

$154.77

PnL

+$12.3

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

Both legs:

CyberHero$86.1757.7¢+$31.75

Xipto Esports$56.332.1¢-$19.46

poshposhARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$115.92

Value

$91.13

PnL

-$24.79

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

Both legs:

CyberHero$57.4977.9¢+$0.04

Xipto Esports$58.4338.3¢-$24.83

38791873984189ARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$245.76

Value

$89.53

PnL

+$9.35

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

Both legs:

CyberHero$72.0475.9¢-$4.97

Xipto Esports$17.7323.7¢+$14.32

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

16 of 24 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.