Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold CyberHero, while the market favors Power Rangers (52%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: CyberHero vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (50%) · CyberHero at 48¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 11

CyberHero48¢Power Rangers52¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 50%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.1K

Combined PnL

$-6.1K

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 48¢

-12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 52%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CyberHero48%

Power Rangers52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero6 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares36,984

Combined PnL$-7.9K

Power Rangers6 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares12,806

Combined PnL+$1.9K

CyberHero — 50%Power Rangers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 55.6¢	$12.9K	$12.2K	-$379.91	48% 487-528 (1015)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 55.6¢	$10.1K	$8.9K	$-1.2K
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 39.4¢	$2.6K	$3.3K	+$813.3
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	CyberHeroavg 60.2¢	$15.1K	$7.4K	$-7.7K	46% 421-493 (914)
GX gxxyyARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 60.2¢	$5.7K	$6.4K	+$1.0K	69% 479-220 (699)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 28.3¢	$2.0K	$3.5K	+$1.5K
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 60.2¢	$3.4K	$2.8K	-$458.42
GE GeorgeRe	Power Rangersavg 39.1¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	+$2.3K	53% 696-625 (1321)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	CyberHeroavg 35.4¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	+$761.89	33% 25-51 (76)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	CyberHeroavg 55¢	$5.2K	$2.5K	-$803.84	24% 23-73 (96)
QW qwerqr1251251ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 63.2¢	$3.1K	$2.4K	-$531.76	13% 21-141 (162)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 63.2¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$330.75
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 58.4¢	$1.2K	$998.28	-$201.01
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 58¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$21.44	56% 3810-2979 (6789)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$32.18
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 44.2¢	$638.85	$585.23	-$53.62
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$14.82	8% 18-201 (219)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 47.4¢	$518.88	$597.04	+$78.15
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 51¢	$584.88	$521.55	-$63.33
XU xuxuntao	Power Rangersavg 64.6¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$443.35	38% 26-43 (69)
MA madar78ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 61¢	$1.4K	$803.56	-$21.66	33% 16-32 (48)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 41.1¢	$305.62	$427.73	+$117.45
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 61¢	$539.08	$375.83	-$139.11
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	Power Rangersavg 36¢	$274.81	$347.16	+$72.35	7% 14-182 (196)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 42.1¢	$368.32	$327.11	-$41.2	54% 1638-1406 (3044)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 42.1¢	$231.53	$170.6	-$60.92
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 60.3¢	$136.79	$156.51	+$19.72
PA pauleta23	Power Rangersavg 64.1¢	$316.92	$242.1	-$74.82	23% 132-437 (569)
LR lryyyARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 57.5¢	$162.43	$158.53	-$3.89	50% 171-170 (341)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 57.5¢	$139.07	$112.52	-$26.54
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 27.2¢	$23.36	$46.01	+$22.65
NO nomoredreamCTR	CyberHeroavg 59.3¢	$1.1K	$97.19	-$195.42	21% 18-68 (86)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 65¢	$59.5	$22.4	+$2.37	51% 252-247 (499)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Power Rangersavg 34.2¢	$19.99	$21.07	+$1.08	41% 3059-4446 (7505)
38 38791873984189<$100	Power Rangersavg 35.3¢	$13.42	$12.16	-$1.26	48% 927-1003 (1930)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.25	+$0.1	25% 171-513 (684)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$12,881.02

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$379.91

Record

48%

487-528 (1015)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$10,086.4355.6¢$-1.2K

CyberHero$2,557.9639.4¢+$813.3

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$15,100

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

46%

421-493 (914)

gxxyyARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$5,667.55

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

69%

479-220 (699)

Both legs:

CyberHero$2,033.9728.3¢+$1.5K

Power Rangers$3,361.1660.2¢-$458.42

GeorgeRe

Power Rangers

Invested

$4,877.81

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

53%

696-625 (1321)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$3,724.7

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$761.89

Record

33%

25-51 (76)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$5,246.86

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$803.84

Record

24%

23-73 (96)

qwerqr1251251ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$3,073.24

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$531.76

Record

13%

21-141 (162)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$1,70863.2¢-$330.75

CyberHero$1,190.0158.4¢-$201.01

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,887.45

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$21.44

Record

56%

3810-2979 (6789)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$1,248.658¢+$32.18

CyberHero$638.8544.2¢-$53.62

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,103.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$14.82

Record

18-201 (219)

Both legs:

CyberHero$518.8847.4¢+$78.15

Power Rangers$584.8851¢-$63.33

xuxuntao

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$443.35

Record

38%

26-43 (69)

madar78ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,373.54

Value

$803.56

PnL

-$21.66

Record

33%

16-32 (48)

Both legs:

CyberHero$305.6241.1¢+$117.45

Power Rangers$539.0861¢-$139.11

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

Power Rangers

Invested

$274.81

Value

$347.16

PnL

+$72.35

Record

14-182 (196)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$368.32

Value

$327.11

PnL

-$41.2

Record

54%

1638-1406 (3044)

Both legs:

CyberHero$231.5342.1¢-$60.92

Power Rangers$136.7960.3¢+$19.72

pauleta23

Power Rangers

Invested

$316.92

Value

$242.1

PnL

-$74.82

Record

23%

132-437 (569)

lryyyARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$162.43

Value

$158.53

PnL

-$3.89

Record

50%

171-170 (341)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$139.0757.5¢-$26.54

CyberHero$23.3627.2¢+$22.65

nomoredreamCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$1,075.13

Value

$97.19

PnL

-$195.42

Record

21%

18-68 (86)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$59.5

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$2.37

Record

51%

252-247 (499)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$19.99

Value

$21.07

PnL

+$1.08

Record

41%

3059-4446 (7505)

38791873984189<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$13.42

Value

$12.16

PnL

-$1.26

Record

48%

927-1003 (1930)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.1

Record

25%

171-513 (684)

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 52%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.