Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (50%) · CyberHero at 61¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 11

CyberHero61¢Inner Circle39¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

$256.66

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 60.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CyberHero61%

Inner Circle40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero4 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares24,999

Combined PnL+$494.66

Inner Circle4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares9,695

Combined PnL-$237.99

CyberHero — 50%Inner Circle — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInner Circle 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Inner Circle 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	CyberHeroavg 58.3¢	$11.4K	$11.6K	+$244.56	46% 426-495 (921)
Tolkonevminus2	CyberHeroavg 58¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$102.46	34% 29-57 (86)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Inner Circleavg 47.2¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$357.75	48% 491-535 (1026)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Inner Circleavg 39¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$92.54	57% 514-393 (907)
CA calculate10	CyberHeroavg 51.6¢	$1.1K	$807.11	+$148.18	22% 26-92 (118)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 53.9¢	$702.77	$723.95	+$21.17	56% 3836-3008 (6844)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 53.9¢	$398.41	$432.35	+$33.95
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 43.3¢	$304.37	$291.59	-$12.77
Medo3DCTR	Inner Circleavg 43¢	$355.98	$360.12	+$4.14	6% 14-216 (230)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Inner Circleavg 40¢	$307.65	$330.72	+$23.07	50% 30-30 (60)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	CyberHeroavg 64¢	$10	$9.45	-$0.55	41% 3116-4481 (7597)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

CyberHero

Invested

$11,400

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$244.56

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

Tolkonevminus2

CyberHero

Invested

$2,377.04

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$102.46

Record

34%

29-57 (86)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$2,344.39

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$357.75

Record

48%

491-535 (1026)

Sisyphus-CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$1,222.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$92.54

Record

57%

514-393 (907)

calculate10

CyberHero

Invested

$1,128.32

Value

$807.11

PnL

+$148.18

Record

22%

26-92 (118)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$702.77

Value

$723.95

PnL

+$21.17

Record

56%

3836-3008 (6844)

Both legs:

CyberHero$398.4153.9¢+$33.95

Inner Circle$304.3743.3¢-$12.77

Medo3DCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$355.98

Value

$360.12

PnL

+$4.14

Record

14-216 (230)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$307.65

Value

$330.72

PnL

+$23.07

Record

50%

30-30 (60)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$10

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$0.55

Record

41%

3116-4481 (7597)

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInner Circle 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Inner Circle 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.