Dota 2: Aurora vs DO KONCA - Game 2 Winner

29 of 45 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora (64%) · Aurora at 84¢ · $154K held · ends Nov 15

Aurora84¢DO KONCA16¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Aurora

Consensus Traders

Aurora 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$154.4K

Combined PnL

$7.5K

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 83.5¢

+32% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

Research candidateAurora at 84%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora

29 of 45 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora84%

DO KONCA17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora29 traders

Total Value$133.7K

Total Shares167,745

Combined PnL+$25.0K

DO KONCA16 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares70,788

Combined PnL$-17.5K

Aurora — 64%DO KONCA — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Auroraavg 58.9¢	$25.8K	$35.9K	+$10.1K	47% 488-549 (1037)
relativesignificance	Auroraavg 61.3¢	$20.1K	$28.0K	+$7.9K	56% 175-139 (314)
JE jelly2026	Auroraavg 73.4¢	$10.5K	$11.7K	+$1.2K	54% 105-91 (196)
GX gxxyy	Auroraavg 77.9¢	$9.0K	$9.9K	+$881.35	69% 520-231 (751)
RA RandomVibecoder	Auroraavg 56.3¢	$5.4K	$8.2K	+$2.8K	48% 548-599 (1147)
GE GEAEW	Auroraavg 61¢	$7.4K	$7.6K	+$181.66	64% 27-15 (42)
dodsterbotARB<$100	DO KONCAavg 38.9¢	$14.0K	$7.4K	$-6.6K	45% 517-625 (1142)
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 38.9¢	$11.9K	$4.4K	$-7.5K
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 60¢	$2.1K	$3.0K	+$893.8
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Auroraavg 79.5¢	$7.7K	$6.8K	-$452.8	70% 31-13 (44)
76 0x764d...2d61	Auroraavg 53¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$56.6	—
KA KaguyaNg	Auroraavg 61¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$681.13	— 8-6 (14)
NeimukingCTR	DO KONCAavg 42.9¢	$7.6K	$2.6K	$-5.0K	37% 19-33 (52)
Bignum	Auroraavg 61¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$60	6% 14-219 (233)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Auroraavg 69.8¢	$4.2K	$2.3K	+$68.39	23% 73-238 (311)
GE GeorgeReCTR	DO KONCAavg 45.7¢	$4.8K	$1.9K	$-2.9K	53% 728-650 (1378)
RNGUzi	Auroraavg 57¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$15.42	6% 11-168 (179)
R2 r2d2v2	Auroraavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$553.45	17% 38-190 (228)
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	DO KONCAavg 41.4¢	$3.0K	$1.8K	$-1.3K	5% 17-306 (323)
cat3xcat3xCTR	DO KONCAavg 46.9¢	$5.3K	$1.6K	$-3.7K	8% 16-189 (205)
DamwonChampions2026	Auroraavg 73¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$15	57% 37-28 (65)
minji	Auroraavg 73¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$112.5	56% 37-29 (66)
0xheavy888	Auroraavg 73¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$112.5	56% 679-534 (1213)
Medo3DCTR	DO KONCAavg 40.3¢	$2.4K	$1.1K	$-1.3K	12% 37-263 (300)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100	Auroraavg 55.5¢	$953.51	$1.0K	+$66.55	16% 44-223 (267)
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 55.5¢	$565.86	$586.5	+$20.64
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 38¢	$387.65	$433.56	+$45.91
NO nomoredream	Auroraavg 83¢	$999.99	$987.94	-$12.05	44% 76-96 (172)
VO Volodyabandit	Auroraavg 59¢	$590.85	$856.23	+$265.38	65% 35-19 (54)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Aurora

Invested

$25,772.42

Value

$35.9K

PnL

+$10.1K

Record

47%

488-549 (1037)

relativesignificance

Aurora

Invested

$20,081.48

Value

$28.0K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

56%

175-139 (314)

jelly2026

Aurora

Invested

$10,513.05

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

105-91 (196)

gxxyy

Aurora

Invested

$9,010.64

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$881.35

Record

69%

520-231 (751)

RandomVibecoder

Aurora

Invested

$5,384.26

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

48%

548-599 (1147)

GEAEW

Aurora

Invested

$7,387.7

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$181.66

Record

64%

27-15 (42)

dodsterbotARB<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$14,006.57

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

45%

517-625 (1142)

Both legs:

DO KONCA$11,887.938.9¢$-7.5K

Aurora$2,104.6960¢+$893.8

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Aurora

Invested

$7,714.72

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$452.8

Record

70%

31-13 (44)

0x764d...2d61

Aurora

Invested

$5,999.99

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$56.6

Record

—

KaguyaNg

Aurora

Invested

$1,979.49

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$681.13

Record

—

8-6 (14)

NeimukingCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$7,572.44

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

37%

19-33 (52)

Bignum

Aurora

Invested

$2,439.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$60

Record

14-219 (233)

TommyLeePeeca

Aurora

Invested

$4,227.14

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$68.39

Record

23%

73-238 (311)

GeorgeReCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$4,756.97

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

53%

728-650 (1378)

RNGUzi

Aurora

Invested

$1,852.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$15.42

Record

11-168 (179)

r2d2v2

Aurora

Invested

$1,261.87

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$553.45

Record

17%

38-190 (228)

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$3,026.78

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

17-306 (323)

cat3xcat3xCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$5,317.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

16-189 (205)

DamwonChampions2026

Aurora

Invested

$1,515

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$15

Record

57%

37-28 (65)

minji

Aurora

Invested

$1,095

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$112.5

Record

56%

37-29 (66)

0xheavy888

Aurora

Invested

$1,095

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$112.5

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

Medo3DCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$2,411.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

12%

37-263 (300)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$953.51

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$66.55

Record

16%

44-223 (267)

Both legs:

Aurora$565.8655.5¢+$20.64

DO KONCA$387.6538¢+$45.91

nomoredream

Aurora

Invested

$999.99

Value

$987.94

PnL

-$12.05

Record

44%

76-96 (172)

Volodyabandit

Aurora

Invested

$590.85

Value

$856.23

PnL

+$265.38

Record

65%

35-19 (54)

Research grade

Research candidateAurora at 84%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora

29 of 45 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.