Dota 2: Aurora vs DO KONCA - Game 1 Winner

22 of 43 top Polymarket traders hold DO KONCA (51%) · DO KONCA at 66¢ · $145K held · ends Nov 15

Aurora35¢DO KONCA65¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

DO KONCA

Consensus Traders

DO KONCA 51%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$145.0K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 65.5¢

+37% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralDO KONCA at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DO KONCA

22 of 43 top traders (51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora35%

DO KONCA66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora21 traders

Total Value$48.5K

Total Shares123,032

Combined PnL$-19.4K

DO KONCA22 traders

Total Value$89.6K

Total Shares141,467

Combined PnL+$23.5K

Aurora — 49%DO KONCA — 51%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Auroraavg 59.8¢	$36.8K	$21.2K	$-15.6K	47% 483-548 (1031)
relativesignificance	DO KONCAavg 38.1¢	$15.4K	$19.4K	+$8.5K	55% 172-139 (311)
SI Sisyphus-	DO KONCAavg 46¢	$11.4K	$16.1K	+$4.8K	57% 551-413 (964)
Sunshine.Smile	DO KONCAavg 39.5¢	$5.2K	$8.6K	+$3.4K	52% 15-14 (29)
GE GeorgeRe	DO KONCAavg 42.9¢	$5.0K	$7.7K	+$2.6K	53% 727-649 (1376)
dodsterbotCTR	Auroraavg 53.3¢	$8.1K	$7.5K	-$574.32	45% 517-624 (1141)
CyberScore.live	DO KONCAavg 48.2¢	$7.3K	$6.9K	-$408.68	54% 44-37 (81)
JE jelly2026	DO KONCAavg 58.9¢	$10.0K	$6.2K	+$1.3K	53% 101-89 (190)
Medo3D	DO KONCAavg 63.7¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$139.23	12% 36-262 (298)
RA RandomVibecoder	DO KONCAavg 56.3¢	$4.3K	$5.0K	+$696.93	48% 546-597 (1143)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQARB<$100	DO KONCAavg 65¢	$5.0K	$4.3K	-$582.92	73% 29-11 (40)
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 65¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$25
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 53.5¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$607.92
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	Auroraavg 57¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$35.85	5% 16-306 (322)
0X 0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502CTR	Auroraavg 42.8¢	$4.8K	$4.0K	-$818.21	35% 8-15 (23)
TA TakeMakeSell	DO KONCAavg 66.9¢	$7.2K	$3.6K	+$524	88% 64-9 (73)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Auroraavg 56.2¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$90.19	16% 43-223 (266)
GE GEAEW	DO KONCAavg 49.5¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$572.65	66% 27-14 (41)
NeimukingCTR	Auroraavg 64¢	$3.4K	$2.2K	-$914.56	38% 19-31 (50)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	DO KONCAavg 40¢	$1.2K	$2.0K	+$776.94	22% 25-89 (114)
maytopmay	DO KONCAavg 48.3¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$445.27	23% 62-212 (274)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Auroraavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$310.26	46% 643-756 (1399)
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 35.9¢	$573.98	$1.0K	+$556.14
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 53¢	$704.42	$458.53	-$245.88
VV VVVSSPCTR	Auroraavg 39.3¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$191.7	36% 44-78 (122)
A3 a37932699CTR	Auroraavg 43.5¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$252.75	9% 19-191 (210)
0xheavy888	DO KONCAavg 65.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$1.22	56% 668-530 (1198)
minji	DO KONCAavg 66¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$27.57	54% 34-29 (63)
DamwonChampions2026	DO KONCAavg 66¢	$990	$982.5	-$7.5	56% 35-28 (63)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Aurora

Invested

$36,837.09

Value

$21.2K

PnL

$-15.6K

Record

47%

483-548 (1031)

relativesignificance

DO KONCA

Invested

$15,396.77

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$8.5K

Record

55%

172-139 (311)

Sisyphus-

DO KONCA

Invested

$11,427.72

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

57%

551-413 (964)

Sunshine.Smile

DO KONCA

Invested

$5,180.28

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

52%

15-14 (29)

GeorgeRe

DO KONCA

Invested

$5,026.65

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

53%

727-649 (1376)

dodsterbotCTR

Aurora

Invested

$8,067.49

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$574.32

Record

45%

517-624 (1141)

CyberScore.live

DO KONCA

Invested

$7,321.41

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$408.68

Record

54%

44-37 (81)

jelly2026

DO KONCA

Invested

$9,961.19

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

101-89 (190)

Medo3D

DO KONCA

Invested

$4,847.22

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$139.23

Record

12%

36-262 (298)

RandomVibecoder

DO KONCA

Invested

$4,289.49

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$696.93

Record

48%

546-597 (1143)

JabamiYumekosRBQARB<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$4,962.58

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$582.92

Record

73%

29-11 (40)

Both legs:

DO KONCA$3,249.9965¢+$25

Aurora$1,639.3253.5¢-$607.92

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

Aurora

Invested

$4,086.9

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$35.85

Record

16-306 (322)

0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502CTR

Aurora

Invested

$4,771.72

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$818.21

Record

35%

8-15 (23)

TakeMakeSell

DO KONCA

Invested

$7,211.04

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$524

Record

88%

64-9 (73)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Aurora

Invested

$2,972.29

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$90.19

Record

16%

43-223 (266)

GEAEW

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,771.3

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$572.65

Record

66%

27-14 (41)

NeimukingCTR

Aurora

Invested

$3,357.05

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$914.56

Record

38%

19-31 (50)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,218.74

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$776.94

Record

22%

25-89 (114)

maytopmay

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,271.68

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$445.27

Record

23%

62-212 (274)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$1,550.82

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$310.26

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

Both legs:

DO KONCA$573.9835.9¢+$556.14

Aurora$704.4253¢-$245.88

VVVSSPCTR

Aurora

Invested

$1,583.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$191.7

Record

36%

44-78 (122)

a37932699CTR

Aurora

Invested

$1,371

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$252.75

Record

19-191 (210)

0xheavy888

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,101.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$1.22

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

minji

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,067.05

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$27.57

Record

54%

34-29 (63)

DamwonChampions2026

DO KONCA

Invested

$990

Value

$982.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

56%

35-28 (63)

Research grade

NeutralDO KONCA at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

DO KONCA

22 of 43 top traders (51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DO KONCA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.