Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold GamerLegion, while the market favors Aurora (53%). 30 of 63 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner

30 of 63 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (48%) · GamerLegion at 47¢ · $240K held · ends Nov 12

Aurora53¢GamerLegion47¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

GamerLegion

Consensus Traders

GamerLegion 48%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$240.2K

Combined PnL

$7.2K

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 47¢

-5% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

30 of 63 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Aurora 53%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora53%

GamerLegion47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GamerLegion30 traders

Total Value$127.0K

Total Shares220,590

Combined PnL+$17.3K

Aurora33 traders

Total Value$79.0K

Total Shares179,859

Combined PnL$-10.2K

GamerLegion — 48%Aurora — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	GamerLegionavg 48.1¢	$29.0K	$36.5K	+$7.5K	46% 448-518 (966)
relativesignificanceCTR	GamerLegionavg 45.8¢	$15.0K	$17.4K	+$4.3K	56% 150-119 (269)
FA facaigege	Auroraavg 36¢	$15.1K	$16.6K	+$1.5K	50% 11-11 (22)
GX gxxyyCTR	GamerLegionavg 54.3¢	$9.8K	$10.9K	+$1.1K	69% 491-221 (712)
SI SineNooneEICTR	GamerLegionavg 44.4¢	$6.8K	$9.5K	+$2.6K	55% 633-524 (1157)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	GamerLegionavg 55¢	$8.4K	$7.9K	-$511.33	48% 510-560 (1070)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 55¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$122.13
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 51.6¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$633.46
CyberScore.liveCTR	GamerLegionavg 40.7¢	$9.0K	$7.8K	$-1.1K	52% 27-25 (52)
Medo3D	Auroraavg 51.1¢	$7.8K	$7.8K	-$21.2	9% 25-239 (264)
YA yadensCTR	GamerLegionavg 64.3¢	$8.2K	$7.7K	-$479.05	21% 21-78 (99)
dodsterbot	Auroraavg 53.1¢	$7.0K	$7.2K	+$206.39	45% 499-611 (1110)
GE GEAEW	Auroraavg 57.7¢	$9.3K	$6.2K	$-3.1K	— 5-3 (8)
GE GeorgeRe	Auroraavg 54.5¢	$8.5K	$6.1K	$-2.3K	53% 706-637 (1343)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	GamerLegionavg 42.6¢	$3.4K	$4.8K	+$1.4K	14% 12-74 (86)
errormarginCTR	GamerLegionavg 65¢	$9.5K	$4.8K	+$50.11	2% 3-177 (180)
QW qwerqr1251251CTR	GamerLegionavg 52.8¢	$5.2K	$4.4K	+$557.69	21% 40-154 (194)
MA madar78ARB<$100	Auroraavg 44.2¢	$29.7K	$4.2K	$-1.4K	41% 32-46 (78)
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 44.2¢	$3.8K	$3.3K	$-1.6K
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 53.3¢	$771.22	$890.62	+$206.45
PI pipipi150ARB<$100	Auroraavg 50.8¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$73.2	65% 36-19 (55)
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 50.8¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$326.4
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 55.8¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$399.6
Skritopoolniy	Auroraavg 50.9¢	$4.9K	$3.8K	$-1.1K	7% 27-368 (395)
Hawk.liveARB<$100	GamerLegionavg 49.3¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$422.78	57% 670-514 (1184)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 49.3¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$347.72
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 39.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$75.06
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Auroraavg 41.4¢	$4.1K	$3.5K	-$537.76	51% 2054-1969 (4023)
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 41.4¢	$3.4K	$2.5K	-$882.77
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 46.4¢	$693.8	$1.0K	+$345
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	GamerLegionavg 50.6¢	$23.7K	$3.4K	-$38.47	30% 36-84 (120)
LU luckycat888888	Auroraavg 52.7¢	$4.2K	$3.2K	$-1.1K	22% 29-105 (134)
Stone1337	Auroraavg 56.3¢	$3.3K	$3.0K	-$282.5	46% 22-26 (48)
0xheavy888	Auroraavg 52¢	$4.7K	$2.8K	-$694	54% 272-234 (506)
AU autob2	Auroraavg 49.7¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$121.15	52% 33-30 (63)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$29,000

Value

$36.5K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

46%

448-518 (966)

relativesignificanceCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$14,974.18

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

56%

150-119 (269)

facaigege

Aurora

Invested

$15,104.9

Value

$16.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

11-11 (22)

gxxyyCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$9,777.11

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

69%

491-221 (712)

SineNooneEICTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$6,827.69

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

55%

633-524 (1157)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$8,423.45

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$511.33

Record

48%

510-560 (1070)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$4,389.9955¢+$122.13

Aurora$4,033.4651.6¢-$633.46

CyberScore.liveCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$8,994.92

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

27-25 (52)

Medo3D

Aurora

Invested

$7,830.43

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$21.2

Record

25-239 (264)

yadensCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$8,200

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$479.05

Record

21%

21-78 (99)

dodsterbot

Aurora

Invested

$6,999.11

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$206.39

Record

45%

499-611 (1110)

GEAEW

Aurora

Invested

$9,299.73

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

—

5-3 (8)

GeorgeRe

Aurora

Invested

$8,464.38

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

53%

706-637 (1343)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$3,368.91

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

14%

12-74 (86)

errormarginCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$9,532.47

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$50.11

Record

3-177 (180)

qwerqr1251251CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$5,222.65

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$557.69

Record

21%

40-154 (194)

madar78ARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$29,736.14

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

41%

32-46 (78)

Both legs:

Aurora$3,780.7744.2¢$-1.6K

GamerLegion$771.2253.3¢+$206.45

pipipi150ARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$3,926.05

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$73.2

Record

65%

36-19 (55)

Both legs:

Aurora$2,314.3350.8¢+$326.4

GamerLegion$1,611.7255.8¢-$399.6

Skritopoolniy

Aurora

Invested

$4,909.8

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

27-368 (395)

Hawk.liveARB<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$3,411.9

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$422.78

Record

57%

670-514 (1184)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$1,738.7749.3¢+$347.72

Aurora$1,559.6739.6¢+$75.06

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$4,054

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$537.76

Record

51%

2054-1969 (4023)

Both legs:

Aurora$3,360.241.4¢-$882.77

GamerLegion$693.846.4¢+$345

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$23,726.07

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$38.47

Record

30%

36-84 (120)

luckycat888888

Aurora

Invested

$4,218.54

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

22%

29-105 (134)

Stone1337

Aurora

Invested

$3,320.98

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$282.5

Record

46%

22-26 (48)

0xheavy888

Aurora

Invested

$4,658.01

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$694

Record

54%

272-234 (506)

autob2

Aurora

Invested

$2,605.58

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$121.15

Record

52%

33-30 (63)

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

30 of 63 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Aurora 53%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GamerLegion wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.