Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Aurora, while the market favors GamerLegion (60%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora (71%) · Aurora at 41¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 12

Aurora41¢GamerLegion59¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora

Consensus Traders

Aurora 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$39.04

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 40.5¢

-34% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors GamerLegion 60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora41%

GamerLegion60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GamerLegion4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,755

Combined PnL+$766.77

Aurora10 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,258

Combined PnL-$805.82

GamerLegion — 29%Aurora — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on Aurora. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAurora 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperAurora 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGamerLegion 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Aurora 65% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarm	GamerLegionavg 29¢	$522	$1.0K	+$504	64% 23-13 (36)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Auroraavg 42.1¢	$771.07	$982.66	+$211.6	38% 482-799 (1281)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 35.7¢	$339.89	$542.15	+$202.27
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 42.1¢	$431.18	$440.51	+$9.33
FE fengshengshuiqi88CTR	Auroraavg 72¢	$1.6K	$936.11	-$631.33	— 8-1 (9)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Auroraavg 48.4¢	$803.38	$782.65	-$20.74	54% 428-364 (792)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 51.8¢	$353.03	$405.83	+$52.8
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 48.4¢	$450.35	$376.82	-$73.54
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	GamerLegionavg 29.2¢	$233.35	$455.91	+$222.56	18% 198-893 (1091)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Auroraavg 54.3¢	$435.42	$364.09	-$71.33	51% 2054-1969 (4023)
AU autob2CTR	Auroraavg 43¢	$365.5	$344.25	-$21.25	52% 33-30 (63)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	GamerLegionavg 41.2¢	$240.09	$297.91	+$57.83	56% 49-39 (88)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 41.2¢	$173.86	$236.26	+$62.4
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 47.3¢	$66.23	$61.65	-$4.58
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	GamerLegionavg 59.1¢	$254.36	$136.63	-$2.83	14% 33-207 (240)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 59.1¢	$82.7	$83.3	+$13.04
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 46.6¢	$61.4	$53.33	-$15.87
HY hydra1248CTR	Auroraavg 71¢	$114.23	$69.18	-$45.05	78% 123-34 (157)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	GamerLegionavg 30¢	$30.51	$57.97	+$27.46	39% 102-157 (259)
forsenxdCTR<$100	Auroraavg 70¢	$79.46	$48.81	-$30.65	49% 362-383 (745)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Auroraavg 44¢	$50.25	$48.23	-$2.02	41% 247-360 (607)
poshposhCTR<$100	Auroraavg 42.6¢	$40.92	$39.86	-$1.07	47% 509-574 (1083)
SU suntori<$100	GamerLegionavg 35.6¢	$19.04	$31.8	+$12.76	47% 1547-1731 (3278)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Auroraavg 48.4¢	$5.39	$4.67	-$0.72	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Auroraavg 71¢	$3.55	$2.15	-$1.4	49% 1071-1128 (2199)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Auroraavg 59.4¢	$3.15	$2.15	-$1	50% 1226-1249 (2475)

JuiceFarm

GamerLegion

Invested

$522

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$504

Record

64%

23-13 (36)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$771.07

Value

$982.66

PnL

+$211.6

Record

38%

482-799 (1281)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$339.8935.7¢+$202.27

Aurora$431.1842.1¢+$9.33

fengshengshuiqi88CTR

Aurora

Invested

$1,567.44

Value

$936.11

PnL

-$631.33

Record

—

8-1 (9)

NotJumpARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$803.38

Value

$782.65

PnL

-$20.74

Record

54%

428-364 (792)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$353.0351.8¢+$52.8

Aurora$450.3548.4¢-$73.54

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

GamerLegion

Invested

$233.35

Value

$455.91

PnL

+$222.56

Record

18%

198-893 (1091)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Aurora

Invested

$435.42

Value

$364.09

PnL

-$71.33

Record

51%

2054-1969 (4023)

autob2CTR

Aurora

Invested

$365.5

Value

$344.25

PnL

-$21.25

Record

52%

33-30 (63)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$240.09

Value

$297.91

PnL

+$57.83

Record

56%

49-39 (88)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$173.8641.2¢+$62.4

Aurora$66.2347.3¢-$4.58

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$254.36

Value

$136.63

PnL

-$2.83

Record

14%

33-207 (240)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$82.759.1¢+$13.04

Aurora$61.446.6¢-$15.87

hydra1248CTR

Aurora

Invested

$114.23

Value

$69.18

PnL

-$45.05

Record

78%

123-34 (157)

NatoAlfista<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$30.51

Value

$57.97

PnL

+$27.46

Record

39%

102-157 (259)

forsenxdCTR<$100

Aurora

Invested

$79.46

Value

$48.81

PnL

-$30.65

Record

49%

362-383 (745)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Aurora

Invested

$50.25

Value

$48.23

PnL

-$2.02

Record

41%

247-360 (607)

poshposhCTR<$100

Aurora

Invested

$40.92

Value

$39.86

PnL

-$1.07

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

suntori<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$19.04

Value

$31.8

PnL

+$12.76

Record

47%

1547-1731 (3278)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Aurora

Invested

$5.39

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$0.72

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Aurora

Invested

$3.55

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$1.4

Record

49%

1071-1128 (2199)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Aurora

Invested

$3.15

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

Research grade

NeutralAurora at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors GamerLegion 60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on Aurora. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAurora 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperAurora 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGamerLegion 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Aurora 65% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.