Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold PuckChamp (73%) · PuckChamp at 100¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
PuckChamp
11
PuckChamp 73%
$19.3K
$1.3K
75.8¢ → 100¢
+32% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralPuckChamp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
70% of non-arb traders are on PuckChamp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | PuckChampavg 74.3¢ | $9.7K | $13.0K | +$3.3K | — |
SI Sisyphus- | PuckChampavg 79¢ | $5.6K | $3.8K | -$590.7 | — |
 SkritopoolniyCTR | Amaru Gamingavg 26.5¢ | $2.0K | $1.4K | -$608.62 | — |
PA pauleta23 | PuckChampavg 68.5¢ | $210 | $306.31 | +$96.31 | — |
PO PourpelNourpel | PuckChampavg 79.3¢ | $387.36 | $290.52 | -$16.52 | — |
 maytopmay | PuckChampavg 85.4¢ | $279.94 | $208.55 | -$30.5 | — |
LR lryyy<$100 | PuckChampavg 72.5¢ | $83.71 | $95.64 | +$11.93 | — |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | PuckChampavg 84¢ | $83.64 | $57.29 | -$12.96 | — |
 alpheclabs2CTR | Amaru Gamingavg 19¢ | $166 | $50.63 | +$19.09 | — |
RA RandomVibecoderCTR | Amaru Gamingavg 18.1¢ | $923.16 | $37.45 | -$804.4 | — |
BA BackTestEoCaraio | PuckChampavg 86.9¢ | $1.3K | $3.42 | -$124.65 | — |
Invested
$9,661.84
Value
$13.0K
PnL
+$3.3K
Record
—
Invested
$5,615.44
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$590.7
Record
—
SkritopoolniyCTRInvested
$2,023.63
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$608.62
Record
—
Invested
$210
Value
$306.31
PnL
+$96.31
Record
—
Invested
$387.36
Value
$290.52
PnL
-$16.52
Record
—
maytopmayInvested
$279.94
Value
$208.55
PnL
-$30.5
Record
—
Invested
$83.71
Value
$95.64
PnL
+$11.93
Record
—
Invested
$83.64
Value
$57.29
PnL
-$12.96
Record
—
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$166
Value
$50.63
PnL
+$19.09
Record
—
Invested
$923.16
Value
$37.45
PnL
-$804.4
Record
—
Invested
$1,346.03
Value
$3.42
PnL
-$124.65
Record
—
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592
PuckChamp — $13.0K
Sisyphus-
PuckChamp — $3.8K
Skritopoolniy
CTRAmaru Gaming — $1.4K
pauleta23
PuckChamp — $306.31
PourpelNourpel
PuckChamp — $290.52
maytopmay
PuckChamp — $208.55
lryyy
PuckChamp — $95.64
ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG
PuckChamp — $57.29
alpheclabs2
CTRAmaru Gaming — $50.63
RandomVibecoder
CTRAmaru Gaming — $37.45