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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was 4ikibamboni — but Spirit Academy won instead.

Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Spirit Academy. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held 4ikibamboni. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

17

4ikibamboni 36%

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Signal

4ikibamboni

6 of 17 top traders (35%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

4ikibamboni0%

Spirit Academy100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit Academy11 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares10,377

Combined PnL+$10.0K

4ikibamboni6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares20,028

Combined PnL$-11.4K

Spirit Academy — 65%4ikibamboni — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Skritopoolniy	Spirit Academyavg 53.6¢	$4.4K	$8.2K	+$3.8K	9% 39-379 (418)
MA madar78CTR	4ikibamboniavg 40.7¢	$12.2K	—	$-10.7K	47% 48-54 (102)
NO NotJump	Spirit Academyavg 50¢	$1.0K	$500.05	+$227.5	53% 634-568 (1202)
PO pol2131	Spirit Academyavg 49¢	$245	$500	+$255	37% 31-52 (83)
alpheclabs2	Spirit Academyavg 48.6¢	$193.41	$398	+$204.59	46% 219-260 (479)
poshposh	Spirit Academyavg 45¢	$263.95	$393.59	+$129.64	47% 786-902 (1688)
OM omnibus-076daa	Spirit Academyavg 56.4¢	$185.36	$328.72	+$143.36	44% 392-498 (890)
LR lryyy<$100	Spirit Academyavg 53.7¢	$52.5	$65	+$12.5	45% 595-734 (1329)
MaoZeDonKCTR	4ikibamboniavg 47.8¢	$350	—	-$350	59% 17-12 (29)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	4ikibamboniavg 44¢	$94.96	—	-$94.96	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	4ikibamboniavg 1¢	$1.18	—	-$1.18	3% 7-242 (249)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Spirit Academyavg 61.4¢	$8.1K	$0	+$4.4K	33% 48-99 (147)
Tolkonevminus2	Spirit Academyavg 72.2¢	$2.2K	$0	+$831.74	44% 57-74 (131)
MR MrConsistency<$100	Spirit Academyavg 16¢	$3.05	$0	+$2.48	36% 20-35 (55)
TA TakeMakeSellCTR	4ikibamboniavg 44.9¢	$4.6K	—	-$57.04	91% 49-5 (54)
NO nomoredreamCTR	4ikibamboniavg 44¢	$852.91	—	-$230.2	38% 52-84 (136)
JE jelly2026<$100	Spirit Academyavg 70¢	$7	—	+$0.1	55% 76-63 (139)

Invested

$4,389.59

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

9%

39-379 (418)

Invested

$12,243.17

Value

—

PnL

$-10.7K

Record

47%

48-54 (102)

Invested

$1,025

Value

$500.05

PnL

+$227.5

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

Invested

$245

Value

$500

PnL

+$255

Record

37%

31-52 (83)

Invested

$193.41

Value

$398

PnL

+$204.59

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

Invested

$263.95

Value

$393.59

PnL

+$129.64

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

Invested

$185.36

Value

$328.72

PnL

+$143.36

Record

44%

392-498 (890)

Invested

$52.5

Value

$65

PnL

+$12.5

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

Invested

$350

Value

—

PnL

-$350

Record

59%

17-12 (29)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$94.96

Value

—

PnL

-$94.96

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$1.18

Value

—

PnL

-$1.18

Record

3%

7-242 (249)

Invested

$8,075.28

Value

$0

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

33%

48-99 (147)

Invested

$2,173.15

Value

$0

PnL

+$831.74

Record

44%

57-74 (131)

MrConsistency<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$0

PnL

+$2.48

Record

36%

20-35 (55)

TakeMakeSellCTR

Invested

$4,568.06

Value

—

PnL

-$57.04

Record

91%

49-5 (54)

Invested

$852.91

Value

—

PnL

-$230.2

Record

38%

52-84 (136)

Invested

$7

Value

—

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

76-63 (139)

Smart Money Signal

4ikibamboni

6 of 17 top traders (35%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5dacb3bd...f31440

Slug

dota2-4iki-spirit1-2026-11-13-game2

Traders in this Market

Skritopoolniy

Spirit Academy — $8.2K

madar78

4ikibamboni — $0

NotJump

Spirit Academy — $500.05

pol2131

Spirit Academy — $500

alpheclabs2

Spirit Academy — $398

poshposh

Spirit Academy — $393.59

omnibus-076daa

Spirit Academy — $328.72

lryyy

Spirit Academy — $65

MaoZeDonK

4ikibamboni — $0

suntori

4ikibamboni — $0

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