Dota 2: 1win vs Froglings - Game 2 Winner

23 of 44 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (52%) · Froglings at 61¢ · $150K held · ends Nov 15

1win40¢Froglings60¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 52%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$149.9K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 60.5¢

+4% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

23 of 44 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

1win40%

Froglings61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings23 traders

Total Value$91.1K

Total Shares149,083

Combined PnL+$5.5K

1win21 traders

Total Value$56.8K

Total Shares131,901

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Froglings — 52%1win — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Froglingsavg 51.2¢	$27.0K	$32.6K	+$6.3K	47% 476-542 (1018)
SI Sisyphus-	Froglingsavg 66.6¢	$23.7K	$20.3K	$-3.2K	57% 547-409 (956)
GE GeorgeRe	Froglingsavg 58¢	$14.4K	$15.7K	+$1.4K	53% 720-649 (1369)
dodsterbotCTR	1winavg 43¢	$16.7K	$15.7K	$-1.0K	45% 511-620 (1131)
SC Scrip-scripCTR	1winavg 46.5¢	$14.1K	$12.8K	$-1.3K	17% 4-20 (24)
Tolkonevminus2	Froglingsavg 54.4¢	$6.6K	$6.9K	+$254.36	49% 78-81 (159)
LU luckycat888888CTR	1winavg 54¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$40	28% 47-121 (168)
forsenxdCTR	1winavg 49.3¢	$4.5K	$4.3K	-$216.73	49% 378-397 (775)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	1winavg 39.2¢	$5.3K	$4.3K	-$963.56	15% 40-219 (259)
YA yadens	Froglingsavg 76.4¢	$4.1K	$3.4K	-$690.83	29% 34-85 (119)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	1winavg 31.7¢	$2.6K	$3.0K	+$391.48	48% 540-590 (1130)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	1winavg 37.9¢	$4.9K	$2.6K	+$330.85	37% 64-110 (174)
DO DotaBotReborn	Froglingsavg 56.4¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$3.73	68% 54-25 (79)
maytopmay	Froglingsavg 70.1¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$484.46	22% 58-208 (266)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	Froglingsavg 53.3¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$124.77	17% 18-86 (104)
iceblue-CTR	1winavg 55.7¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$263.6	44% 33-42 (75)
0xheavy888CTR	1winavg 37.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$32.33	56% 541-433 (974)
minjiCTR	1winavg 35.5¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$238.76	53% 25-22 (47)
DamwonChampions2026CTR	1winavg 36.6¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$4.95	54% 25-21 (46)
relativesignificance	Froglingsavg 51.9¢	$14.1K	$1.1K	+$1.7K	55% 165-133 (298)
PI pipipi150ARB<$100	1winavg 31.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$82.14	67% 75-37 (112)
└ 1win leg	1winavg 31.7¢	$843.6	$759.24	-$84.36
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 71¢	$315.24	$317.46	+$2.22
Sunshine.Smile	Froglingsavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.26	— 9-7 (16)
AU autob2CTR	1winavg 24.5¢	$610.59	$874.07	+$263.48	55% 63-51 (114)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	1winavg 33.8¢	$768.35	$844.68	+$76.33	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
└ 1win leg	1winavg 33.8¢	$547.02	$640.1	+$93.07
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 65.5¢	$221.33	$204.58	-$16.75
WE westing.v1CTR	1winavg 46¢	$856.43	$809.88	-$46.55	22% 29-101 (130)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Froglings

Invested

$26,995.31

Value

$32.6K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

47%

476-542 (1018)

Sisyphus-

Froglings

Invested

$23,678.93

Value

$20.3K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

57%

547-409 (956)

GeorgeRe

Froglings

Invested

$14,387.16

Value

$15.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

53%

720-649 (1369)

dodsterbotCTR

1win

Invested

$16,713.54

Value

$15.7K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

45%

511-620 (1131)

Scrip-scripCTR

1win

Invested

$14,093.42

Value

$12.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

17%

4-20 (24)

Tolkonevminus2

Froglings

Invested

$6,627.74

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$254.36

Record

49%

78-81 (159)

luckycat888888CTR

1win

Invested

$4,319.99

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$40

Record

28%

47-121 (168)

forsenxdCTR

1win

Invested

$4,548.84

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$216.73

Record

49%

378-397 (775)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

1win

Invested

$5,268.18

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$963.56

Record

15%

40-219 (259)

yadens

Froglings

Invested

$4,080

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$690.83

Record

29%

34-85 (119)

RandomVibecoderCTR

1win

Invested

$2,583.98

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$391.48

Record

48%

540-590 (1130)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

1win

Invested

$4,904.56

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$330.85

Record

37%

64-110 (174)

DotaBotReborn

Froglings

Invested

$2,320

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$3.73

Record

68%

54-25 (79)

maytopmay

Froglings

Invested

$2,721.88

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$484.46

Record

22%

58-208 (266)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

Froglings

Invested

$2,067.92

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$124.77

Record

17%

18-86 (104)

iceblue-CTR

1win

Invested

$1,685.87

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$263.6

Record

44%

33-42 (75)

0xheavy888CTR

1win

Invested

$1,404.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$32.33

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

minjiCTR

1win

Invested

$1,066.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$238.76

Record

53%

25-22 (47)

DamwonChampions2026CTR

1win

Invested

$1,252.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$4.95

Record

54%

25-21 (46)

relativesignificance

Froglings

Invested

$14,079.35

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

55%

165-133 (298)

pipipi150ARB<$100

1win

Invested

$1,158.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$82.14

Record

67%

75-37 (112)

Both legs:

1win$843.631.7¢-$84.36

Froglings$315.2471¢+$2.22

Sunshine.Smile

Froglings

Invested

$1,063.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.26

Record

—

9-7 (16)

autob2CTR

1win

Invested

$610.59

Value

$874.07

PnL

+$263.48

Record

55%

63-51 (114)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

1win

Invested

$768.35

Value

$844.68

PnL

+$76.33

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

Both legs:

1win$547.0233.8¢+$93.07

Froglings$221.3365.5¢-$16.75

westing.v1CTR

1win

Invested

$856.43

Value

$809.88

PnL

-$46.55

Record

22%

29-101 (130)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

23 of 44 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.