Dota 2: 1win vs Froglings (BO3) - 1win Essence Group D
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold 1win (89%) · 1win at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
1win
9
1win 89%
$1.1K
$12.05
58.9¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
Neutral1win at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+22 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on 1win. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU JuiceFarm | 1winavg 58¢ | $599.85 | $605.02 | +$5.17 | 59% 42-29 (71) |
ZZ Zzzz87 | 1winavg 60¢ | $167.22 | $161.65 | -$5.57 | 62% 87-54 (141) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Froglingsavg 31.8¢ | $122.01 | $141.84 | +$19.84 | 48% 269-286 (555) |
OM omnibus-076daa | 1winavg 60¢ | $107.44 | $103.86 | -$3.58 | 46% 479-564 (1043) |
 poshposh<$100 | 1winavg 59.4¢ | $58.8 | $59.84 | +$1.04 | 48% 1079-1157 (2236) |
BI biying88888<$100 | 1winavg 63¢ | $50.4 | $46.4 | -$4 | 44% 202-259 (461) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | 1winavg 63¢ | $6.3 | $5.8 | -$0.5 | 41% 687-1004 (1691) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | 1winavg 61¢ | $4.01 | $3.81 | -$0.2 | 49% 3769-3940 (7709) |
SE sentrio<$100 | 1winavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $2.9 | -$0.15 | 42% 979-1345 (2324) |
Invested
$599.85
Value
$605.02
PnL
+$5.17
Record
59%
42-29 (71)
Invested
$167.22
Value
$161.65
PnL
-$5.57
Record
62%
87-54 (141)
Invested
$122.01
Value
$141.84
PnL
+$19.84
Record
48%
269-286 (555)
Invested
$107.44
Value
$103.86
PnL
-$3.58
Record
46%
479-564 (1043)
poshposh<$100Invested
$58.8
Value
$59.84
PnL
+$1.04
Record
48%
1079-1157 (2236)
Invested
$50.4
Value
$46.4
PnL
-$4
Record
44%
202-259 (461)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$5.8
PnL
-$0.5
Record
41%
687-1004 (1691)
Invested
$4.01
Value
$3.81
PnL
-$0.2
Record
49%
3769-3940 (7709)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$0.15
Record
42%
979-1345 (2324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.