Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 57¢ · $600 held · ends Nov 3

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$600

Combined PnL

-$3.04

Research grade

AvoidYes at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$21.1

Total Shares69

Combined PnL-$6.94

No1 trader

Total Value$13.9

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$3.9

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 54.5¢	$577.65	$565	-$9.31	33% 273-556 (829)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.5¢	$308	$324.88	+$17
└ No leg	Noavg 47.2¢	$266.42	$240.13	-$26.32
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$23.14	$14.39	-$8.75	36% 14550-25983 (40533)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$10	$13.9	+$3.9	45% 1795-2182 (3977)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$14.8	$6.71	+$1.81	42% 5172-7103 (12275)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$577.65

Value

$565

PnL

-$9.31

Record

33%

273-556 (829)

Both legs:

Yes$30854.5¢+$17

No$266.4247.2¢-$26.32

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.14

Value

$14.39

PnL

-$8.75

Record

36%

14550-25983 (40533)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$13.9

PnL

+$3.9

Record

45%

1795-2182 (3977)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.8

Value

$6.71

PnL

+$1.81

Record

42%

5172-7103 (12275)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.5%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.