Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 80¢ · $299 held · ends Oct 30

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$298.54

Combined PnL

$11.12

Research grade

AvoidNo at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$250.16

Total Shares315

Combined PnL-$2.09

Yes4 traders

Total Value$48.38

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$13.2

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 80.3¢	$264.85	$250.16	-$2.09	53% 6266-5497 (11763)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.6¢	$33.61	$32.23	+$3.68	35% 14652-26739 (41391)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$4.4	$8.4	+$4	42% 1672-2287 (3959)
CL claudesportsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.6	$4.18	+$3.48	35% 344-638 (982)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.53	$3.57	+$2.04	61% 20566-13016 (33582)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$264.85

Value

$250.16

PnL

-$2.09

Record

53%

6266-5497 (11763)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.61

Value

$32.23

PnL

+$3.68

Record

35%

14652-26739 (41391)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.4

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$4

Record

42%

1672-2287 (3959)

claudesportsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$3.48

Record

35%

344-638 (982)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.53

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$2.04

Record

61%

20566-13016 (33582)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.6%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.