Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 54¢ · $511 held · ends Nov 13

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$511.31

Combined PnL

-$194.9

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 54.4¢

-27% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$508.8

Total Shares944

Combined PnL-$197.07

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.51

Total Shares6

Combined PnL+$2.18

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 77.1¢	$443.9	$310.26	-$133.63	53% 40-36 (76)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 65.9¢	$96.18	$78.68	-$17.5	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$46.75	$26.91	-$19.84	53% 5667-5092 (10759)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 59.1¢	$27.19	$24.79	-$2.39	3% 1-31 (32)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 75.1¢	$30.04	$21.56	-$8.48	10% 3-26 (29)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$20.85	$13.33	-$7.52	41% 3119-4481 (7600)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$15.1	$10.78	-$4.32	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 59.7¢	$9.95	$8.99	-$0.97	24% 77-243 (320)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 64.8¢	$6.64	$5.52	-$1.12	43% 375-505 (880)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 54¢	$5.4	$5.39	-$0.01	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$0.34	$2.51	+$2.18	47% 356-402 (758)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$1.95	$1.29	-$0.65	41% 689-993 (1682)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$1.93	$1.28	-$0.65	45% 378-468 (846)

Haradwaith

Invested

$443.9

Value

$310.26

PnL

-$133.63

Record

53%

40-36 (76)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$96.18

Value

$78.68

PnL

-$17.5

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$46.75

Value

$26.91

PnL

-$19.84

Record

53%

5667-5092 (10759)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$27.19

Value

$24.79

PnL

-$2.39

Record

1-31 (32)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$30.04

Value

$21.56

PnL

-$8.48

Record

10%

3-26 (29)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$20.85

Value

$13.33

PnL

-$7.52

Record

41%

3119-4481 (7600)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$15.1

Value

$10.78

PnL

-$4.32

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.95

Value

$8.99

PnL

-$0.97

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.64

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$1.12

Record

43%

375-505 (880)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$0.01

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$2.18

Record

47%

356-402 (758)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$0.65

Record

41%

689-993 (1682)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$0.65

Record

45%

378-468 (846)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.4%

54.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.