Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 95¢ · $183 held · ends Nov 13

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$183.49

Combined PnL

$1.41

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 95.1¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$169.05

Total Shares176

Combined PnL+$0.9

Yes3 traders

Total Value$14.43

Total Shares352

Combined PnL+$0.51

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

188h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$97.6	$97.39	-$0.21	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 94¢	$46.91	$47.88	+$0.97	53% 5656-5081 (10737)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$19.04	$19.17	+$0.13	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$12.36	$12.55	+$0.97	66% 4109-2134 (6243)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$2.31	$2.31	+$0	47% 353-400 (753)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$2.3	$2.3	+$0	42% 370-503 (873)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.99	$1.64	-$0.35	41% 3115-4481 (7596)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.36	$0.25	-$0.11	41% 688-988 (1676)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$97.6

Value

$97.39

PnL

-$0.21

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$46.91

Value

$47.88

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

5656-5081 (10737)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.04

Value

$19.17

PnL

+$0.13

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.36

Value

$12.55

PnL

+$0.97

Record

66%

4109-2134 (6243)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.31

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

353-400 (753)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

370-503 (873)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$0.35

Record

41%

3115-4481 (7596)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.11

Record

41%

688-988 (1676)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

188h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.