Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (81%). 13 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

13 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (59%) · No at 20¢ · $540 held · ends Nov 10

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$540.39

Combined PnL

$56.23

Smart Money Entry

17¢ → 19.5¢

+14% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 22 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$239.12

Total Shares259

Combined PnL+$42.15

No13 traders

Total Value$153.15

Total Shares807

Combined PnL+$14.08

Yes — 41%No — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 74.2¢	$214.05	$148.12	-$13.96	16% 427-2305 (2732)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74.2¢	$111.4	$114.09	-$9.41
└ No leg	Noavg 28.7¢	$48.82	$34.02	-$4.56
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$86.86	$86	+$18.42	25% 1630-4964 (6594)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$58.35	$55.12	-$0.7	16% 266-1363 (1629)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$29.76	$28.99	-$0.77	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$27	$28.5	+$1.5	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.72	$27.57	+$24.84	18% 4199-19790 (23989)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$16.42	$18.35	+$1.93	28% 329-852 (1181)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$16.42	$18.35	+$1.93	42% 3656-5058 (8714)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$16.42	$18.35	+$1.93	29% 373-898 (1271)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$16.42	$18.35	+$1.93	30% 369-870 (1239)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 19.7¢	$15.65	$15.07	-$0.58	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 11.7¢	$8.92	$14.44	+$5.52	51% 3482-3360 (6842)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$10.12	$10.27	+$0.15	38% 947-1564 (2511)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$9.33	$9.44	+$0.11	47% 1602-1786 (3388)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$7.38	$8.77	+$1.38	53% 28631-25561 (54192)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$7.35	$7.31	-$0.05	40% 2066-3099 (5165)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$7.31	$7.31	+$0	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$6.98	$7.13	+$0.14	39% 974-1548 (2522)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$5.7	$5.55	-$0.15	30% 2095-4887 (6982)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 19.2¢	$2.54	$2.51	-$0.03	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$1.86	$2.08	+$0.22	29% 357-873 (1230)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 19.5¢	$13.33	$1.55	-$1.58	24% 302-944 (1246)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$1.2	$1.27	+$0.07	43% 1325-1779 (3104)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$214.05

Value

$148.12

PnL

-$13.96

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

Both legs:

Yes$111.474.2¢-$9.41

No$48.8228.7¢-$4.56

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.86

Value

$86

PnL

+$18.42

Record

25%

1630-4964 (6594)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.35

Value

$55.12

PnL

-$0.7

Record

16%

266-1363 (1629)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.76

Value

$28.99

PnL

-$0.77

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.72

Value

$27.57

PnL

+$24.84

Record

18%

4199-19790 (23989)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$16.42

Value

$18.35

PnL

+$1.93

Record

28%

329-852 (1181)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

$16.42

Value

$18.35

PnL

+$1.93

Record

42%

3656-5058 (8714)

akrollCTR<$100

Invested

$16.42

Value

$18.35

PnL

+$1.93

Record

29%

373-898 (1271)

pollo07CTR<$100

Invested

$16.42

Value

$18.35

PnL

+$1.93

Record

30%

369-870 (1239)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$15.65

Value

$15.07

PnL

-$0.58

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$8.92

Value

$14.44

PnL

+$5.52

Record

51%

3482-3360 (6842)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.12

Value

$10.27

PnL

+$0.15

Record

38%

947-1564 (2511)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.33

Value

$9.44

PnL

+$0.11

Record

47%

1602-1786 (3388)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$7.38

Value

$8.77

PnL

+$1.38

Record

53%

28631-25561 (54192)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.35

Value

$7.31

PnL

-$0.05

Record

40%

2066-3099 (5165)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.31

Value

$7.31

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.98

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$0.14

Record

39%

974-1548 (2522)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.15

Record

30%

2095-4887 (6982)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$2.54

Value

$2.51

PnL

-$0.03

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

klli27CTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.22

Record

29%

357-873 (1230)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$13.33

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$1.58

Record

24%

302-944 (1246)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0.07

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 22 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.2%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$372.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

472.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.