Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 97¢ · $384 held · ends Nov 10

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$384.15

Combined PnL

$20.37

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$363.11

Total Shares349

Combined PnL+$17.81

Yes3 traders

Total Value$20.56

Total Shares262

Combined PnL+$2.56

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 95.1¢	$354.88	$363.11	+$17.81	14% 461-2758 (3219)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$16.03	$16.8	+$0.76	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.53	$2.35	+$1.83	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.44	$1.41	-$0.03	35% 18159-34016 (52175)

Istaroth

Invested

$354.88

Value

$363.11

PnL

+$17.81

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.03

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$0.76

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$1.83

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.