Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from November 13 to November 20, 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 82¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 20

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$116.29

Combined PnL

$22.65

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 81.8¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$105.54

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$2.11

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.58

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$20.54

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$29.68	$29.84	+$0.17	53% 7392-6516 (13908)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$25.74	$24.87	-$0.87	42% 1671-2307 (3978)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$20.85	$20.72	-$0.13	33% 80-164 (244)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$18.55	$17.86	-$0.69	31% 1102-2456 (3558)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 81.9¢	$58.19	$8.15	-$2.76	65% 4359-2377 (6736)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$83.81	$6.26	+$8.83	38% 3779-6149 (9928)
LornaPredicts	Noavg 83¢	$189.89	$4.09	+$6.38	14% 98-587 (685)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.1¢	$7.83	$2.53	+$1.06	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26.38	$1.78	+$10.65	29% 266-655 (921)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.68

Value

$29.84

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

7392-6516 (13908)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$25.74

Value

$24.87

PnL

-$0.87

Record

42%

1671-2307 (3978)

123987456<$100

Invested

$20.85

Value

$20.72

PnL

-$0.13

Record

33%

80-164 (244)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$18.55

Value

$17.86

PnL

-$0.69

Record

31%

1102-2456 (3558)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$58.19

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$2.76

Record

65%

4359-2377 (6736)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.81

Value

$6.26

PnL

+$8.83

Record

38%

3779-6149 (9928)

LornaPredicts

Invested

$189.89

Value

$4.09

PnL

+$6.38

Record

14%

98-587 (685)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.83

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$1.06

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.38

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$10.65

Record

29%

266-655 (921)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.4%

81.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.