Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from November 13 to November 20, 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 5.5¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 20

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$108.59

Combined PnL

-$8.13

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$82.68

Total Shares88

Combined PnL+$5.32

Yes6 traders

Total Value$25.67

Total Shares410

Combined PnL-$13.45

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$32.52	$34	+$1.48	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 87¢	$26.1	$28.34	+$2.23	31% 1122-2474 (3596)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 87¢	$18.74	$20.34	+$1.6	36% 332-601 (933)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 10.1¢	$120.73	$15.37	-$10.73	14% 103-625 (728)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$31.92	$3.48	-$0.45	38% 3808-6231 (10039)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$48.35	$3.15	+$0.4	65% 4374-2391 (6765)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$160.43	$1.58	+$2.84	29% 308-740 (1048)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$6.51	$1.32	-$5.19	12% 29-223 (252)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$0.76	-$0.33	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$32.52

Value

$34

PnL

+$1.48

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$26.1

Value

$28.34

PnL

+$2.23

Record

31%

1122-2474 (3596)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$18.74

Value

$20.34

PnL

+$1.6

Record

36%

332-601 (933)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.73

Value

$15.37

PnL

-$10.73

Record

14%

103-625 (728)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.92

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$0.45

Record

38%

3808-6231 (10039)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.35

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.4

Record

65%

4374-2391 (6765)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$160.43

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$2.84

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.51

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$5.19

Record

12%

29-223 (252)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$0.33

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.7%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1394.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

1494.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.