Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 6.7¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$158.99
-$5.93
Research grade
AvoidYes at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Late
58h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $43.68 | $44.9 | +$1.22 | 33% 80-164 (244) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $33.92 | $33.68 | -$0.24 | 53% 7408-6544 (13952) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $28.2 | $28.07 | -$0.13 | 34% 309-591 (900) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $20.46 | $20.15 | -$0.31 | 28% 1080-2773 (3853) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $16.88 | $18.31 | +$1.43 | 14% 98-588 (686) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $14.65 | $6.21 | -$3.92 | 29% 270-666 (936) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.56 | $5.57 | -$1.99 | 38% 3782-6154 (9936) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $33.46 | $1.29 | -$1.71 | 42% 5184-7017 (12201) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.09 | $0.8 | -$0.29 | 52% 2230-2031 (4261) |
Invested
$43.68
Value
$44.9
PnL
+$1.22
Record
33%
80-164 (244)
Invested
$33.92
Value
$33.68
PnL
-$0.24
Record
53%
7408-6544 (13952)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$28.07
PnL
-$0.13
Record
34%
309-591 (900)
Invested
$20.46
Value
$20.15
PnL
-$0.31
Record
28%
1080-2773 (3853)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$16.88
Value
$18.31
PnL
+$1.43
Record
14%
98-588 (686)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$14.65
Value
$6.21
PnL
-$3.92
Record
29%
270-666 (936)
Invested
$7.56
Value
$5.57
PnL
-$1.99
Record
38%
3782-6154 (9936)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$33.46
Value
$1.29
PnL
-$1.71
Record
42%
5184-7017 (12201)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$0.29
Record
52%
2230-2031 (4261)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.