Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 91¢ · $176 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 78%
$176.38
$6.85
87.4¢ → 91¢
+4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $39.76 | $40.95 | +$1.19 | 29% 63-155 (218) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 89.6¢ | $32.24 | $32.4 | +$0.16 | 53% 7051-6190 (13241) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $25.5 | $27 | +$1.5 | 27% 1021-2711 (3732) |
 LornaPredicts | Noavg 89¢ | $197.34 | $22.36 | +$1.63 | 14% 82-515 (597) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $18.31 | $19.39 | +$1.08 | 42% 1628-2289 (3917) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $55.58 | $12.49 | -$0.58 | 65% 4317-2331 (6648) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.09 | $11.1 | +$1.01 | 32% 168-365 (533) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.56 | $9.42 | +$0.86 | 39% 3645-5777 (9422) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $1.26 | $1.27 | +$0.01 | 52% 1716-1565 (3281) |
Invested
$39.76
Value
$40.95
PnL
+$1.19
Record
29%
63-155 (218)
Invested
$32.24
Value
$32.4
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
7051-6190 (13241)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$27
PnL
+$1.5
Record
27%
1021-2711 (3732)
LornaPredictsInvested
$197.34
Value
$22.36
PnL
+$1.63
Record
14%
82-515 (597)
Invested
$18.31
Value
$19.39
PnL
+$1.08
Record
42%
1628-2289 (3917)
Invested
$55.58
Value
$12.49
PnL
-$0.58
Record
65%
4317-2331 (6648)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$10.09
Value
$11.1
PnL
+$1.01
Record
32%
168-365 (533)
Invested
$8.56
Value
$9.42
PnL
+$0.86
Record
39%
3645-5777 (9422)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.27
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
1716-1565 (3281)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.