Dogecoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 100¢ · $404 held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

Total Value

$403.55

Combined PnL

$19.98

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$401.24

Total Shares411

Combined PnL+$23.92

Up3 traders

Total Value$2.32

Total Shares87

Combined PnL-$3.94

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 90.4¢	$282.13	$291	+$20.72	37% 598-1014 (1612)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 92¢	$43.21	$43.97	+$0.76	51% 1663-1626 (3289)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 79.7¢	$23.9	$29.1	+$5.2	47% 809-896 (1705)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 90¢	$27.74	$25.58	-$2.16	51% 1179-1131 (2310)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 92¢	$10.6	$10	-$0.6	46% 1190-1388 (2578)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 10.6¢	$12.75	$2.01	-$0.74	59% 2910-2008 (4918)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.59	$1.59	+$0	48% 803-867 (1670)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$1.6	$0.3	-$1.3	44% 1205-1516 (2721)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$1.9	$0.01	-$1.9	55% 1235-1011 (2246)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$282.13

Value

$291

PnL

+$20.72

Record

37%

598-1014 (1612)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$43.21

Value

$43.97

PnL

+$0.76

Record

51%

1663-1626 (3289)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$23.9

Value

$29.1

PnL

+$5.2

Record

47%

809-896 (1705)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$27.74

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$2.16

Record

51%

1179-1131 (2310)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.6

Record

46%

1190-1388 (2578)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$12.75

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$0.74

Record

59%

2910-2008 (4918)

0x50f7<$100

Down

Invested

$1.59

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

803-867 (1670)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$1.3

Record

44%

1205-1516 (2721)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.9

Record

55%

1235-1011 (2246)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.