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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Dogecoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 75%
Total Value
$45.43
Combined PnL
-$6.92
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up1 trader
Total Value$45.43
Total Shares45
Combined PnL+$0.58
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares20
Combined PnL-$7.5
Up — 20%Down — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1B 0x1b41...0b56<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $44.85 | $45.43 | +$0.58 | — |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 26.5¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 49% 767-785 (1552) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 60% 2617-1724 (4341) |
5E 0x5e8e...8212CTR<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $1.9 | — | -$1.9 | — |
D8 0xd8f1...74a9CTR<$100 | Downavg 25.7¢ | $3.9 | — | -$1.9 | — |
1B
0x1b41...0b56<$100Invested
$44.85
Value
$45.43
PnL
+$0.58
Record
—
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
49%
767-785 (1552)
0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
60%
2617-1724 (4341)
5E
0x5e8e...8212CTR<$100Invested
$1.9
Value
—
PnL
-$1.9
Record
—
D8
0xd8f1...74a9CTR<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
—
PnL
-$1.9
Record
—
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xeb4703dd...cb595c
Slug
doge-updown-15m-1794447000