Rot-Weiss Essen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 75¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 27

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 74.5¢

+69% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares11,236

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares8,030

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 45¢	$4.1K	$6.8K	+$2.7K	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 59.6¢	$3.7K	$2.8K	-$892.31	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.6¢	$2.8K	$1.6K	$-1.2K
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.8¢	$949.01	$1.2K	+$274.02
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$3.1K	$2.2K	-$852.5	53% 1187-1063 (2250)
RN1	Underavg 38.1¢	$790.59	$1.4K	+$107.43	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
DA dashattackerCTR	Overavg 52¢	$453	$426.87	-$26.13	72% 2228-852 (3080)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$310.59	$171.9	-$138.69	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 45.8¢	$45.04	$62.48	+$17.44	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 67¢	$47.81	$43.42	-$4.39	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 50¢	$35	$34.65	-$0.35	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$6.58	$10.39	+$3.81	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
LA LaarsY<$100	Underavg 47¢	$11.27	$5.04	-$6.24	50% 3361-3312 (6673)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 47¢	$10.81	$4.83	-$5.98	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
CA Cannae<$100	Underavg 23¢	$4.14	$3.78	-$0.36	53% 15683-13856 (29539)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$3.1	$3.45	+$0.35	50% 7576-7601 (15177)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 23.4¢	$3.27	$1.05	-$0.06	58% 40420-29201 (69621)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$4,132.41

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,718.03

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$892.31

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

Both legs:

Over$2,769.0359.6¢$-1.2K

Under$949.0150.8¢+$274.02

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Over

Invested

$3,095

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$852.5

Record

53%

1187-1063 (2250)

RN1

Under

Invested

$790.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$107.43

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

dashattackerCTR

Over

Invested

$453

Value

$426.87

PnL

-$26.13

Record

72%

2228-852 (3080)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$310.59

Value

$171.9

PnL

-$138.69

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$45.04

Value

$62.48

PnL

+$17.44

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$47.81

Value

$43.42

PnL

-$4.39

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$35

Value

$34.65

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.58

Value

$10.39

PnL

+$3.81

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

LaarsY<$100

Under

Invested

$11.27

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$6.24

Record

50%

3361-3312 (6673)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$10.81

Value

$4.83

PnL

-$5.98

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

Cannae<$100

Under

Invested

$4.14

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$0.36

Record

53%

15683-13856 (29539)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

7576-7601 (15177)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$3.27

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.