Rot-Weiss Essen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (90%) · Over at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Over63¢Under37¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$90.55

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 62.5¢

-10% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,242

Combined PnL-$59.58

Under1 trader

Total Value$519.82

Total Shares1,474

Combined PnL+$150.12

Over — 90%Under — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 66.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$27.87	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 24.8¢	$369.7	$519.82	+$150.12	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 68¢	$360.29	$440.3	+$80.01	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
└ Over leg	Overavg 68¢	$312.87	$309.82	-$3.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 11.9¢	$47.41	$130.48	+$83.07
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 78.8¢	$200.95	$165.68	-$35.27	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 70¢	$63.19	$62.66	-$0.53	55% 8036-6505 (14541)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 90¢	$54	$52.8	+$0.3	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 83.4¢	$33.46	$38.11	+$4.65	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 73.3¢	$28.21	$27	-$1.2	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 75.9¢	$3.92	$5.27	+$1.35	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 90¢	$4.5	$3.47	-$1.03	36% 14598-26253 (40851)
fxwd12345<$100	Overavg 93.4¢	$1	$1.02	+$0.02	69% 1474-657 (2131)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,181.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$27.87

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$369.7

Value

$519.82

PnL

+$150.12

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$360.29

Value

$440.3

PnL

+$80.01

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

Both legs:

Over$312.8768¢-$3.05

Under$47.4111.9¢+$83.07

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$200.95

Value

$165.68

PnL

-$35.27

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$63.19

Value

$62.66

PnL

-$0.53

Record

55%

8036-6505 (14541)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$54

Value

$52.8

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$33.46

Value

$38.11

PnL

+$4.65

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$28.21

Value

$27

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$3.92

Value

$5.27

PnL

+$1.35

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$4.5

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$1.03

Record

36%

14598-26253 (40851)

fxwd12345<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.02

Record

69%

1474-657 (2131)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.