Rot-Weiss Essen vs. RB Leipzig: 1st Half O/U 1.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$3.1K
$1.2K
58.2¢ → 100¢
+72% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 44.6¢ | $710.55 | $1.5K | +$829.1 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 86.3¢ | $821.22 | $951.59 | +$130.37 | 72% 2228-852 (3080) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 47¢ | $286.36 | $493.57 | +$207.21 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 14¢ | $11.97 | $82.08 | +$70.11 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 79.5¢ | $37.54 | $45.32 | +$7.78 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $12.11 | $14.3 | +$2.19 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $3.84 | $3.77 | -$0.07 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $2 | $0.01 | -$1.99 | 59% 29934-20654 (50588) |
RN1Invested
$710.55
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$829.1
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$821.22
Value
$951.59
PnL
+$130.37
Record
72%
2228-852 (3080)
Invested
$286.36
Value
$493.57
PnL
+$207.21
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$11.97
Value
$82.08
PnL
+$70.11
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$37.54
Value
$45.32
PnL
+$7.78
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.11
Value
$14.3
PnL
+$2.19
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$3.77
PnL
-$0.07
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$2
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.99
Record
59%
29934-20654 (50588)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.