Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: 1st Half O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

91.5¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,796

Combined PnL+$320.48

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares9,006

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 99¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$28.33	81% 2417-550 (2967)
MA maxiplayerCTR	Underavg 2¢	$71.33	$2.4K	+$2.4K	77% 693-209 (902)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423d	Overavg 76¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$383.34	51% 636-616 (1252)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 52.7¢	$505.58	$696	+$190.42	72% 2286-872 (3158)
ZX zxc368<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$73.14	$73.17	+$0.04	99% 12681-184 (12865)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 49¢	$127.4	$71.5	-$55.9	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 46¢	$69	$41.25	-$27.75	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 1.2¢	$57.5	$23.94	-$33.56	67% 23116-11520 (34636)
SP spendingmoney<$100	Overavg 75¢	$11.97	$4.39	-$7.58	55% 800-643 (1443)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$5,609.06

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$28.33

Record

81%

2417-550 (2967)

maxiplayerCTR

Under

Invested

$71.33

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

77%

693-209 (902)

0xbf2342fds234423d

Over

Invested

$1,239.75

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$383.34

Record

51%

636-616 (1252)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$505.58

Value

$696

PnL

+$190.42

Record

72%

2286-872 (3158)

zxc368<$100

Over

Invested

$73.14

Value

$73.17

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

12681-184 (12865)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$127.4

Value

$71.5

PnL

-$55.9

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$69

Value

$41.25

PnL

-$27.75

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.5

Value

$23.94

PnL

-$33.56

Record

67%

23116-11520 (34636)

spendingmoney<$100

Over

Invested

$11.97

Value

$4.39

PnL

-$7.58

Record

55%

800-643 (1443)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.