Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 100¢ · $6K held

Over<1¢Under>99¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$561.83

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,286

Combined PnL+$581.36

Over2 traders

Total Value$24.44

Total Shares194

Combined PnL-$19.53

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA maxiplayer	Underavg 91.7¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$286.87	77% 679-207 (886)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 88.7¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$273.68	72% 2235-854 (3089)
poshposh	Underavg 89¢	$116.37	$127.52	+$11.15	60% 9159-6104 (15263)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 43¢	$28.2	$28.23	+$14.2	53% 2040-1807 (3847)
RN1CTR	Overavg 72.3¢	$33.05	$24.43	-$8.62	54% 55411-47463 (102874)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 84.4¢	$25.59	$21.05	-$4.54	54% 2678-2303 (4981)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Overavg 77¢	$10.92	$0.01	-$10.91	53% 690-620 (1310)

maxiplayer

Under

Invested

$3,398.15

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$286.87

Record

77%

679-207 (886)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,147.16

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$273.68

Record

72%

2235-854 (3089)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$116.37

Value

$127.52

PnL

+$11.15

Record

60%

9159-6104 (15263)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$28.2

Value

$28.23

PnL

+$14.2

Record

53%

2040-1807 (3847)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$33.05

Value

$24.43

PnL

-$8.62

Record

54%

55411-47463 (102874)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$25.59

Value

$21.05

PnL

-$4.54

Record

54%

2678-2303 (4981)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.92

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$10.91

Record

53%

690-620 (1310)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.