DeSantis's Republican nomination odds hit 25% by December 31?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$16.87

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 81¢

+30% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,790

Combined PnL+$24.95

Yes5 traders

Total Value$118.26

Total Shares328

Combined PnL-$8.08

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
vinii	Noavg 62.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$27.06	— 0-1 (1)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 65¢	$67.54	$65.43	-$2.11	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$43.2	$43.2	+$0	23% 510-1692 (2202)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.1¢	$54.48	$40.32	-$5.04	— 0-12 (12)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$18.5	$18	-$0.5	— 1-10 (11)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$13.5	$10.8	-$2.7	— 1-9 (10)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$5.77	$5.94	+$0.16	— 10-8 (18)

vinii

Invested

$1,060.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$27.06

Record

—

0-1 (1)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$67.54

Value

$65.43

PnL

-$2.11

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.2

Value

$43.2

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

510-1692 (2202)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.48

Value

$40.32

PnL

-$5.04

Record

—

0-12 (12)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.5

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.5

Record

—

1-10 (11)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$2.7

Record

—

1-9 (10)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.77

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$0.16

Record

—

10-8 (18)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.6%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.