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2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 70¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.1K
$284.39
47.3¢ → 69.5¢
+47% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 47.3¢ | $612.8 | $900.66 | +$287.85 | — 0-1 (1) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $75.48 | $75.48 | +$0 | 23% 510-1692 (2202) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $71.76 | $70.38 | -$1.38 | — 1-10 (11) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $63.4 | $60.8 | -$2.6 | — 0-12 (12) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $40.94 | $41.46 | +$0.52 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
viniiInvested
$612.8
Value
$900.66
PnL
+$287.85
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$75.48
Value
$75.48
PnL
+$0
Record
23%
510-1692 (2202)
Invested
$71.76
Value
$70.38
PnL
-$1.38
Record
—
1-10 (11)
Invested
$63.4
Value
$60.8
PnL
-$2.6
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$40.94
Value
$41.46
PnL
+$0.52
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.