Viborg FF vs. AC Horsens: O/U 3.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 99¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 99.3¢

+53% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares7,255

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Over3 traders

Total Value$16.44

Total Shares414

Combined PnL+$0.13

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 57¢	$2.0K	$3.2K	+$1.2K	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 86.1¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$204.46	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 57.3¢	$820.59	$1.0K	+$196.98	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
0xheavy888	Underavg 60.5¢	$241.98	$353.98	+$111.99	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 68¢	$68.54	$93.35	+$24.81	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 57¢	$54.72	$68.16	+$13.44	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
DA dashattacker<$100	Underavg 99¢	$11.12	$11.14	+$0.02	72% 2539-970 (3509)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 3.4¢	$9.82	$9.79	-$0.03	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 5.3¢	$6.36	$6.48	+$0.12	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 2.1¢	$0.13	$0.17	+$0.04	54% 57146-49404 (106550)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,991.64

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,604.59

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$204.46

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$820.59

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$196.98

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$241.98

Value

$353.98

PnL

+$111.99

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$68.54

Value

$93.35

PnL

+$24.81

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$54.72

Value

$68.16

PnL

+$13.44

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

dashattacker<$100

Under

Invested

$11.12

Value

$11.14

PnL

+$0.02

Record

72%

2539-970 (3509)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.82

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.36

Value

$6.48

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.