Will AC Horsens win on 2026-09-06?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 70¢ · $760 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$759.62
$989.58
23.5¢ → 69.5¢
+196% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
86h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 20.2¢ | $141.58 | $325.1 | +$206.77 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 4.1¢ | $245.89 | $221.12 | +$716.87 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1 | Noavg 50.5¢ | $259.33 | $166.69 | +$85.85 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $45.19 | $34.99 | -$2.47 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 95¢ | $25.65 | $8.24 | -$17.42 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Noavg 70.1¢ | $3.5 | $3.47 | -$0.03 | 57% 19479-14427 (33906) |
Invested
$141.58
Value
$325.1
PnL
+$206.77
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$245.89
Value
$221.12
PnL
+$716.87
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1Invested
$259.33
Value
$166.69
PnL
+$85.85
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$45.19
Value
$34.99
PnL
-$2.47
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$25.65
Value
$8.24
PnL
-$17.42
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$0.03
Record
57%
19479-14427 (33906)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.