Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (85%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Odense BK vs. Viborg FF: O/U 1.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 16¢ · $282 held · ends Nov 7

Over85¢Under15¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$281.69

Combined PnL

$0.64

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 15.5¢

-66% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$204.49

Total Shares229

Combined PnL+$0.15

Over4 traders

Total Value$77.2

Total Shares88

Combined PnL+$0.5

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Underavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 82¢	$45.1	$45.65	+$0.55	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 83.7¢	$15.28	$15.16	-$0.13	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Overavg 82¢	$8.2	$8.3	+$0.05	53% 2695-2376 (5071)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 82¢	$8.04	$8.09	+$0.02	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$4.35	$4.5	+$0.15	51% 38217-37441 (75658)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$45.1

Value

$45.65

PnL

+$0.55

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$15.28

Value

$15.16

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Over

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

2695-2376 (5071)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$8.04

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

38217-37441 (75658)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.