Will Odense BK win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 65¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.4K
$57.98
64.6¢ → 64.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 65¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$50.08 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $26.5 | $34.19 | +$7.69 | — |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $32 | $32.25 | +$0.25 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $6.5 | $6.45 | -$0.05 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $1.08 | $1.08 | +$0.02 | 51% 38171-37411 (75582) |
Invested
$1,346.03
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$50.08
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$34.19
PnL
+$7.69
Record
—
Invested
$32
Value
$32.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.5
Value
$6.45
PnL
-$0.05
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.08
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
38171-37411 (75582)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.