Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sønderjyske Fodbold (33%) · Sønderjyske Fodbold at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

FC Midtjylland29¢Sønderjyske Fodbold71¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Consensus Traders

Sønderjyske Fodbold 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$162.08

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 71¢

+38% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSønderjyske Fodbold at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sønderjyske Fodbold

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FC Midtjylland29%

Sønderjyske Fodbold71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sønderjyske Fodbold3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,359

Combined PnL+$56.05

FC Midtjylland6 traders

Total Value$848.08

Total Shares2,163

Combined PnL-$218.13

Sønderjyske Fodbold — 33%FC Midtjylland — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Sønderjyske Fodbold. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSønderjyske Fodbold 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFC Midtjylland 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000FC Midtjylland 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Sønderjyske Fodboldavg 51¢	$1.7K	$879.7	+$8.54	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	FC Midtjyllandavg 48¢	$837.67	$622.47	-$215.21	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
FL Flaznorp	Sønderjyske Fodboldavg 51.8¢	$324.09	$371.98	+$47.89	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	FC Midtjyllandavg 49¢	$77.57	$79.84	+$2.27	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
38 38791873984189CTR	FC Midtjyllandavg 51¢	$134	$64.99	-$3.35	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Sønderjyske Fodboldavg 50.1¢	$90.32	$58.57	+$0.95	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Sønderjyske Fodbold leg	Sønderjyske Fodboldavg 50.1¢	$32.87	$33.77	+$0.9
└ FC Midtjylland leg	FC Midtjyllandavg 50.4¢	$25.8	$24.81	+$0.05
VE VenusianCTR<$100	FC Midtjyllandavg 49¢	$77.33	$37.5	-$0.39	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	FC Midtjyllandavg 53¢	$25.8	$24.53	-$1.26	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	FC Midtjyllandavg 49¢	$38.65	$18.75	-$0.19	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
RN1<$100	Sønderjyske Fodboldavg 61¢	$15.64	$15.26	-$0.38	53% 70164-61737 (131901)

ferrariChampions2026

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Invested

$1,708.16

Value

$879.7

PnL

+$8.54

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

GoalLineGhostCTR

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$837.67

Value

$622.47

PnL

-$215.21

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Flaznorp

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Invested

$324.09

Value

$371.98

PnL

+$47.89

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$77.57

Value

$79.84

PnL

+$2.27

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

38791873984189CTR

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$134

Value

$64.99

PnL

-$3.35

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

sentrioARB<$100

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Invested

$90.32

Value

$58.57

PnL

+$0.95

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Sønderjyske Fodbold$32.8750.1¢+$0.9

FC Midtjylland$25.850.4¢+$0.05

VenusianCTR<$100

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$77.33

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$0.39

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$25.8

Value

$24.53

PnL

-$1.26

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$38.65

Value

$18.75

PnL

-$0.19

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

RN1<$100

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Invested

$15.64

Value

$15.26

PnL

-$0.38

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Research grade

NeutralSønderjyske Fodbold at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sønderjyske Fodbold

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Sønderjyske Fodbold. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSønderjyske Fodbold 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFC Midtjylland 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000FC Midtjylland 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sønderjyske Fodbold wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.