Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 85¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$289.04

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 84.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 14 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,727

Combined PnL+$50.88

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares8,363

Combined PnL-$339.91

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 80.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$33.07	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 23.2¢	$1.2K	$831.35	-$353.4	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 74¢	$629.52	$700.81	+$71.29	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$324.67	$370.74	+$46.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.3¢	$304.85	$330.07	+$25.22
38 38791873984189	Noavg 80.5¢	$626.27	$619.32	-$6.95	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 12.9¢	$294.94	$354.32	+$59.38	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 77.4¢	$329.14	$323.7	+$24.8	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Noavg 84¢	$190.62	$194.49	+$3.87	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
└ No leg	Noavg 84¢	$147	$147	+$0
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.7¢	$43.62	$47.49	+$3.87
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$165.26	$123.98	-$41.28	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$20	$23	+$3	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 11¢	$410	$20.4	+$0.93	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.8¢	$17.67	$9.54	-$8.13	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$9.29	$9	-$0.29	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.9	$8.85	-$0.05	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$28.09	$3.23	+$0.14	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$1.61	$1.91	+$0.3	50% 1560-1566 (3126)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.6	$1.03	-$0.57	50% 23433-23429 (46862)

RN1

Invested

$1,426.36

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$33.07

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,184.75

Value

$831.35

PnL

-$353.4

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$629.52

Value

$700.81

PnL

+$71.29

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

No$324.6774¢+$46.07

Yes$304.8514.3¢+$25.22

38791873984189

Invested

$626.27

Value

$619.32

PnL

-$6.95

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$294.94

Value

$354.32

PnL

+$59.38

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Pan9X

Invested

$329.14

Value

$323.7

PnL

+$24.8

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

LimousinARB<$100

Invested

$190.62

Value

$194.49

PnL

+$3.87

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Both legs:

Invested

$165.26

Value

$123.98

PnL

-$41.28

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$23

PnL

+$3

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$410

Value

$20.4

PnL

+$0.93

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.67

Value

$9.54

PnL

-$8.13

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.29

Value

PnL

-$0.29

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$8.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.09

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.61

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

1560-1566 (3126)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.57

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 14 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.