FC København vs. AC Horsens: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 65¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$2.3K
$8.3
64.2¢ → 64.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 62.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | +$36.53 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
 RN1 | Underavg 61.4¢ | $563.31 | $606.72 | +$43.41 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 72.5¢ | $412.7 | $366.99 | -$45.71 | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
LA LaarsYCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $100.72 | $74.49 | -$26.23 | 51% 3521-3429 (6950) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $1.62 | $1.92 | +$0.3 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,462.42
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$36.53
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
RN1Invested
$563.31
Value
$606.72
PnL
+$43.41
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
Invested
$412.7
Value
$366.99
PnL
-$45.71
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
Invested
$100.72
Value
$74.49
PnL
-$26.23
Record
51%
3521-3429 (6950)
Invested
$1.62
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$0.3
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.