Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
FC København vs. Brøndby IF: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 45¢ · $353 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$352.61
$0.18
45.2¢ → 44.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 45.2¢ | $169.68 | $166.99 | +$1.93 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 56¢ | $165.42 | $163.95 | -$1.48 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $10 | $9.91 | -$0.09 | 53% 2695-2376 (5071) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.2¢ | $8.94 | $8.99 | -$0.1 | 50% 21541-21839 (43380) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.78 | -$0.08 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
Invested
$169.68
Value
$166.99
PnL
+$1.93
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
VeryLucky888Invested
$165.42
Value
$163.95
PnL
-$1.48
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.91
PnL
-$0.09
Record
53%
2695-2376 (5071)
Invested
$8.94
Value
$8.99
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
21541-21839 (43380)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.78
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.