FC København vs. Brøndby IF: O/U 1.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 67¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$322.88

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 66.5¢

+32% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,770

Combined PnL+$149.05

Under5 traders

Total Value$358.05

Total Shares724

Combined PnL+$173.83

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 68¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$46.69	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Over leg	Overavg 68¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$63.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.4¢	$608.49	$718.89	+$110.4
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 42.9¢	$575.53	$779.05	+$203.53	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 57.2¢	$505.2	$435.22	-$11.67	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 36.2¢	$403.84	$425.31	+$21.47	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.2¢	$320.66	$296.68	-$23.99
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$83.17	$128.63	+$45.46
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 22.9¢	$68.57	$150	+$81.43	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 60.5¢	$134.97	$111.62	-$13.35	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.5¢	$65.32	$71.24	+$7.02
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$60.75	$40.38	-$20.38
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 29.1¢	$60.33	$103.75	+$43.42	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 79¢	$116.62	$73.81	-$42.81	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$27.08	$64.48	+$37.4	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 30.2¢	$19.71	$32.6	+$12.89	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$8.53	$7.22	-$1.31	49% 1844-1936 (3780)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,438.23

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$46.69

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Over$2,829.7468¢-$63.71

Under$608.4928.4¢+$110.4

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$575.53

Value

$779.05

PnL

+$203.53

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$505.2

Value

$435.22

PnL

-$11.67

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$403.84

Value

$425.31

PnL

+$21.47

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Under$320.6636.2¢-$23.99

Over$83.1743¢+$45.46

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$68.57

Value

$150

PnL

+$81.43

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$134.97

Value

$111.62

PnL

-$13.35

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Over$65.3260.5¢+$7.02

Under$60.7551.2¢-$20.38

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$60.33

Value

$103.75

PnL

+$43.42

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$116.62

Value

$73.81

PnL

-$42.81

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.08

Value

$64.48

PnL

+$37.4

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.71

Value

$32.6

PnL

+$12.89

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.53

Value

$7.22

PnL

-$1.31

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.