Will FC København win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 81¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Yes81¢No19¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$149.32

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 80.5¢

+73% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares6,407

Combined PnL+$876.37

No4 traders

Total Value$576.72

Total Shares2,469

Combined PnL-$727.05

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 45.9¢	$4.8K	$5.7K	+$875.78	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 49.6¢	$605.03	$502.43	-$88.2	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.2¢	$222.98	$355.68	+$129.04
└ No leg	Noavg 49.6¢	$363.99	$146.75	-$217.24
RN1CTR	Noavg 54.1¢	$948.7	$341.76	-$606.94	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
PA Pan9X	Yesavg 59.1¢	$457.82	$317.35	-$0.65	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 57¢	$431.73	$220.89	-$210.84	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80¢	$110.21	$110.9	+$0.69
└ No leg	Noavg 57¢	$321.52	$109.99	-$211.53
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 55.6¢	$206.21	$140.59	-$65.62	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Noavg 58.9¢	$121.06	$96.43	-$24.63	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.8¢	$43.5	$69.45	+$25.95
└ No leg	Noavg 58.9¢	$77.56	$26.98	-$50.58
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 51.2¢	$74.71	$54.67	-$20.04	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 36.4¢	$74.15	$39.7	-$34.45	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$3.15	$4.03	+$0.88	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$2.48	$2.85	+$0.37	59% 33715-23828 (57543)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$4,817.59

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$875.78

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$605.03

Value

$502.43

PnL

-$88.2

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Yes$222.9850.2¢+$129.04

No$363.9949.6¢-$217.24

RN1CTR

Invested

$948.7

Value

$341.76

PnL

-$606.94

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Pan9X

Yes

Invested

$457.82

Value

$317.35

PnL

-$0.65

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$431.73

Value

$220.89

PnL

-$210.84

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Yes$110.2180¢+$0.69

No$321.5257¢-$211.53

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$206.21

Value

$140.59

PnL

-$65.62

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LimousinARB<$100

Invested

$121.06

Value

$96.43

PnL

-$24.63

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Yes$43.549.8¢+$25.95

No$77.5658.9¢-$50.58

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$74.71

Value

$54.67

PnL

-$20.04

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$74.15

Value

$39.7

PnL

-$34.45

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.15

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.88

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.48

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.37

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.