Will FC København vs. Brøndby IF end in a draw?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 33%
$1.6K
-$39.53
66.3¢ → 82.5¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 67.9¢ | $456.3 | $554.07 | +$97.77 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 63.7¢ | $230.23 | $298.26 | +$68.03 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 36.9¢ | $212.64 | $250.97 | +$38.32 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 34.7¢ | $320.07 | $175.26 | -$144.81 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 65.8¢ | $128.79 | $155.56 | +$26.76 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.2¢ | $96.48 | $50.86 | -$45.62 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $90.99 | $44.82 | -$46.17 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $45.79 | $20.98 | -$24.81 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $15.67 | $6.67 | -$9 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
Invested
$456.3
Value
$554.07
PnL
+$97.77
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$230.23
Value
$298.26
PnL
+$68.03
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$212.64
Value
$250.97
PnL
+$38.32
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$320.07
Value
$175.26
PnL
-$144.81
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$128.79
Value
$155.56
PnL
+$26.76
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$96.48
Value
$50.86
PnL
-$45.62
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$90.99
Value
$44.82
PnL
-$46.17
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$45.79
Value
$20.98
PnL
-$24.81
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$15.67
Value
$6.67
PnL
-$9
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.