Democratic 2028 presidential odds 68-70% on November 20?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 77¢ · $411 held · ends Nov 20
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$411.06
-$16.62
80.8¢ → 76.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 81.5¢ | $325.99 | $305.99 | -$20 | 48% 1239-1326 (2565) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $41 | $39 | -$2 | 36% 17-30 (47) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $29.2 | $31.2 | +$2 | 28% 1103-2780 (3883) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $12.95 | $12.95 | +$0 | 38% 317-524 (841) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $8 | $7.8 | -$0.2 | 30% 1175-2733 (3908) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $3.33 | $4.8 | +$1.47 | 14% 103-624 (727) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $3 | $4 | +$1 | 53% 7468-6589 (14057) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $86.55 | $3.88 | +$0.67 | 38% 3804-6225 (10029) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $1.01 | $1.45 | +$0.44 | 40% 2676-3963 (6639) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$325.99
Value
$305.99
PnL
-$20
Record
48%
1239-1326 (2565)
Invested
$41
Value
$39
PnL
-$2
Record
36%
17-30 (47)
Invested
$29.2
Value
$31.2
PnL
+$2
Record
28%
1103-2780 (3883)
Invested
$12.95
Value
$12.95
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
317-524 (841)
Invested
$8
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
30%
1175-2733 (3908)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.33
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$1.47
Record
14%
103-624 (727)
Invested
$3
Value
$4
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
7468-6589 (14057)
Invested
$86.55
Value
$3.88
PnL
+$0.67
Record
38%
3804-6225 (10029)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$0.44
Record
40%
2676-3963 (6639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.