Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and a Democrat win the 2028 presidential election?
Resolved No. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Yes 67%
$30
-$14.55
Smart Money Signal
7 of 15 top traders (47%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.19 | — | -$1.19 | 20% 2762-10914 (13676) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $78.48 | $30 | +$3.84 | 49% 8958-9484 (18442) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$14.79 | 30% 2485-5916 (8401) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | No | $1.47 | — | +$1.47 | 72% 14170-5468 (19638) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 29693-26582 (56275) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 76% 13009-4160 (17169) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 27% 532-1439 (1971) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 35% 18725-34748 (53473) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 14976-9440 (24416) |
 CoinTrick<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 98% 4511-115 (4626) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 49% 752-790 (1542) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 50% 9890-9904 (19794) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 41% 6357-9331 (15688) |
ME MenacingTurtleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 284-213 (497) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 84.9¢ | $18.76 | — | -$3.88 | 18% 357-1657 (2014) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.19
Value
—
PnL
-$1.19
Record
20%
2762-10914 (13676)
Invested
$78.48
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.84
Record
49%
8958-9484 (18442)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$14.79
Record
30%
2485-5916 (8401)
Invested
$1.47
Value
—
PnL
+$1.47
Record
72%
14170-5468 (19638)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
29693-26582 (56275)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
13009-4160 (17169)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
532-1439 (1971)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
18725-34748 (53473)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
14976-9440 (24416)
CoinTrick<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
98%
4511-115 (4626)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
752-790 (1542)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
9890-9904 (19794)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
6357-9331 (15688)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
284-213 (497)
Invested
$18.76
Value
—
PnL
-$3.88
Record
18%
357-1657 (2014)